February 24, 2026 Morning Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Macro Bearish Factors Dominate, Market Enters Safe-Haven Mode

This morning, the overall cryptocurrency market shows a weak downward trend, with Bitcoin breaking below the key support of $65,000, reaching a low of $63,877, hitting a new low since February 6. The market decline is mainly influenced by multiple macro bearish factors such as uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and weakening Bitcoin ETF capital inflows. Within 24 hours, over 137,500 traders were liquidated, with total liquidation amounting to approximately $465 million, and market sentiment has plunged into extreme panic.

I. Market Overview and Key Data

As of Beijing time early morning on February 24, 2026, Bitcoin’s global spot price is $64,800 per coin, down 4.23% in 24 hours, with a intraday low of $63,877. The RMB quote is 448,000 yuan per coin, with a 24-hour high of 467,800 yuan and a low of 442,000 yuan. Bitcoin’s total market cap is approximately 9.41 trillion RMB (1.35 trillion USD), accounting for 71.5% of the global crypto market. The 24-hour trading volume is 389.08 billion RMB, with a turnover rate of 4.34%.

Ethereum also declined, with a quote of $1,885.54, down 2.92%. Other major cryptocurrencies such as Solana fell 4.98%, Dogecoin dropped 0.35%, and XRP decreased 1.16%. The global crypto market is broadly declining, with panic spreading among investors.

II. In-Depth Analysis of the Decline Causes

1. Increasing Macro Policy Uncertainty

On Saturday, U.S. President Trump posted on social media that retaliatory tariffs against many trade partners would be raised to 15%, “effective immediately.” Just a day earlier, the Supreme Court had dismissed his previous trade tax law. XS analyst Linh Tran pointed out that the court’s rejection of Trump’s tariff measures and the government’s subsequent announcement of new global tariffs have significantly increased global trade uncertainty. Policy uncertainty often triggers short-term “safe-haven” sentiment, prompting investors to prefer cash and bonds over highly volatile assets.

2. Escalating Geopolitical Risks

Last week, President Trump stated that due to Iran’s resistance to the new nuclear agreement, he would decide within “about 10 days” whether to strike Iran. Tensions have continued to escalate in recent days, with the U.S. deploying military forces to the Middle East. The increased risk of conflict between the U.S. and Iran has led investors to shift from risk assets like Bitcoin to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, with spot gold breaking through $5,220, up 2.4%.

3. Tightening Market Liquidity

Capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have significantly weakened, directly impacting market demand and dampening expectations for a sustainable bull cycle. Over the past three months, U.S.-listed crypto ETFs have experienced nearly $4 billion in net outflows, with a single-day outflow exceeding $74 million. Meanwhile, exchange-held stablecoin reserves have shrunk by 14% over three months, indicating a severe lack of market purchasing power.

4. Technical and Market Structure Factors

Previously, the market repeatedly rebounded but failed to break through the strong resistance at $70,000, with bullish momentum continuously waning and chip structure loosening. The weekly chart shows a double top pattern (at $79,200 / $71,400), with the current price breaking below the neckline at $68,000, with a measured target pointing to the $60,000 region. After consecutive daily red candles, on February 23, a long lower shadow tested support at $64,290 and rebounded, temporarily releasing some selling pressure.

III. Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels

Bitcoin Technical Indicators

Bollinger Bands show the price has broken below the middle band (around $67,170), currently running along the mid-lower band, with the lower band slightly opening, which often signals weakening consolidation or potential downside risk. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with short-term MA turning downward; MA5 (around $65,539) is the first resistance level, with the price under persistent pressure.

MACD shows the DIF line crossing below the DEA line, forming a death cross, with increasing green bearish momentum bars, indicating strengthening downward momentum. The KDJ indicator is in the low zone (between 20-50), not yet forming a golden cross, suggesting market weakness and potential short-term further decline.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support: The immediate support is the 24-hour low of $63,888.79, with the Bollinger lower band at $64,512.42 providing some traction. If this support is broken effectively, a new downward wave may begin, with stronger support at the psychological $60,000 level.

Resistance: The first resistance is near the Bollinger middle line ($67,170), followed by the MA30 at $67,813.54. Stronger resistance lies at the Bollinger upper band at $69,828.03. If the price stabilizes and rebounds above $66,000, the market may return to a consolidation pattern.

IV. Trading Strategy Recommendations

Short-term Trading (1-3 days)

Bearish Strategy: Given the dominance of bearish momentum, consider shorting in the $67,500–$68,500 range, with a stop-loss at $70,500, targeting below $66,500. If the price effectively breaks below $63,800 support, consider adding to short positions, aiming for $62,000–$60,000.

Bullish Strategy: Only suitable for aggressive investors, attempting small longs in the $63,500–$64,500 range, with a strict 500-point stop-loss, targeting above $66,000. This strategy carries high risk and requires strict position control.

Mid-term Investment (1-4 weeks)

Wait-and-see: The market is currently in a downward continuation pattern, with very weak rebound strength, declining volume, and strong market caution. Maintain low positions and wait for clear signals.

Gradual Position Building: If Bitcoin drops to the $60,000–$62,000 zone, consider incremental buying, with initial positions not exceeding 20% of total funds, adding 10% each time it falls another 5%. This zone aligns with the measured target of the weekly double top, offering strong technical support.

Risk Management Points

Position Management: Limit risk per trade to 1–3% of total capital; avoid full allocation.

Stop-loss Discipline: Always set stop-loss; not doing so risks liquidation. In crypto, longevity is more important than quick gains.

Emotional Control: Strictly distinguish between “planned trades” and “emotional trades,” avoiding impulsive decisions driven by fear of missing out or revenge trading.

Asset Selection: Focus on 2–5 familiar coins, with 1–2 fixed strategies, emphasizing stability through repetition rather than novelty.

V. Market Outlook and Key Focus Areas

Short-term Outlook (1-2 weeks)

The market will remain influenced by macro factors, with close attention to:

U.S.-Iran developments: Whether Trump will decide on military action against Iran within “about 10 days.”

Tariff policy implementation: The specifics of the new U.S. global tariff plan.

ETF capital flows: Whether Bitcoin ETFs show signs of capital inflow.

Technical breakthroughs: Whether Bitcoin can regain above $66,000 and break through the $67,170 resistance.

Medium to Long-term Outlook (1-3 months)

Despite short-term pressure, the long-term fundamentals of the crypto market remain intact. Institutional investors are accelerating their deployment, with a shift toward “pro-crypto” policies in the U.S., especially discussions around establishing a “Bitcoin strategic reserve,” injecting strong institutional confidence. As Ethereum and other public chains continue upgrades, and new narratives like real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and decentralized social media take hold, the practical value of cryptocurrencies will deepen within the digital economy.

Key Monitoring Indicators

Coinbase Premium: When this indicator turns positive again, it signals that U.S. institutional buyers have re-entered the market.

Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 5 (extreme fear), a rise above 20 is needed before considering active positioning.

Stablecoin Reserves: Whether exchange-held stablecoin reserves stop declining and start to recover, reflecting market liquidity.

Open Interest: Changes in CME crypto derivatives open interest, indicating institutional capital movements.

This morning, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp decline amid multiple macro bearish factors, with Bitcoin breaking below key support levels and market sentiment plunging into extreme panic. Technical analysis shows the market is in a continuation of the downtrend, with further downside risks in the short term. It is recommended to adopt a defensive approach, strictly control positions and risks, and wait for stabilization signals. In the medium to long term, the fundamentals of the crypto market remain solid, with ongoing institutionalization. The current correction offers strategic opportunities for value investors.

Investors should stay rational, avoid emotional trading, and strictly adhere to trading discipline. In crypto markets, slow is fast, and steady is winning. Only those who survive can enjoy the final victory.