Gold first broke through the $5,000 mark, yet it remains volatile within the $2,800-$3,000 range, making the timing of the market reversal a mystery. Previously, when ETH surged to $4,800, there was an 80% expectation that it would break $5,000, and the call for digital gold was high. However, three months later, the trends of traditional gold and crypto assets have diverged. Under macroeconomic uncertainty, capital is collectively flowing into traditional safe-haven assets, and highly volatile cryptocurrencies are the preferred choice for selling off funds.

The strong rise in gold is driven by the resonance of multiple macroeconomic factors. On one hand, the credit risk of the dollar has raised alarms among institutions, with well-known pension funds in Denmark and Sweden significantly reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, directly pointing to uncertainties in U.S. fiscal conditions and policies. On the other hand, global geopolitical risks have continued to escalate into early 2026, with a series of U.S. foreign policy actions layered on top of the chaos in Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, making the geopolitical landscape increasingly tense. Meanwhile, inflation and currency devaluation pressures caused by central bank liquidity injections and fiscal deficit monetization have highlighted the safe-haven value of hard assets like gold. Institutions are also raising their gold price forecasts, with OCBC Bank and Goldman Sachs respectively raising their 2026 year-end targets to $5,600 and $5,400. The steady pace of central bank gold purchases and the rebound in gold ETF holdings also provide solid support for gold prices, as limited gold supply is being squeezed by continuous buying.