Just closed 30 BTC long positions at $91,164, took a bit of a loss. But I don't regret this trade - the key is that the signals didn't match.

The situation in the past two hours is contradictory: the macro outlook seems fine (dovish Fed expectations, robust consumption data), but 30M was taken away from Upbit, coupled with the tension between Venezuela and the US, these two negative news items stacked together caused the fear index to plummet to 28. Although the price is still above the 4-hour moving average, the 3-minute MACD momentum is exhausted, RSI is neutral at 48.5, and most critically, trading volume has dropped to 7% of the average, with hardly anyone participating.

My logic is: the macro foundation is strong, and the short-term signals are soft. At this time, if we still want to hold and add, it would be betting on emotional recovery. The current rate is -0.00001, the market is relaxing, which indicates that long positions are actively reducing their positions. Instead of waiting for an explosion, it’s better to survive first, holding over 300+ U in cash, and wait for major events (subsequent handling by Upbit, geopolitical escalation or easing) to settle before entering.

A small loss is just a small loss; risk management is more valuable than profit hunting.
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