# Powell Finally Told the Truth: No Rate Cuts in 2026

Do you know what was most ironic last night?

Powell stood on stage and said one sentence.

The entire room fell silent for three seconds.

Then US stocks started plunging, Bitcoin crashed directly from 71000 to 70500, Nasdaq closed down 1.5%, gold fell below 4850, hitting a one-month low.

What did he say?

"We expect inflation to make progress, but not as much as we hoped."

Translation into plain language:

No rate cuts in 2026.

The dot plot exploded: 7:7, perfectly split

Let me show you one data point first—this is the distribution of 19 Federal Reserve officials' votes on 2026 interest rates:

- 7 people said: we shouldn't cut rates this year

- 7 people said: one cut is enough

- 5 people said: we can cut 2 times or more

7:7.

Perfectly split.

What does this mean?

In FOMC history, this kind of "directional dispute" split is extremely rare. Previously disagreements were "25 basis points or 50 basis points," but the direction was unified. Now it's "should we cut or not"—two groups are pulling in opposite directions.

Powell also confirmed this at the press conference:

"4 to 5 people shifted from expecting 2 cuts to expecting just 1 cut."

This isn't consensus forming—it's two opposing camps each consolidating.

Any surprise in inflation data could make either side collectively reverse course.

The median of 3.4% hasn't changed, but beneath this 3.4%, two groups stand pulling in opposite directions.

What's more dangerous than disagreement?

This kind of symmetric split.

The Federal Reserve is always chasing inflation upwards

The root of the rate dispute is the inflation dispute.

Look at this set of numbers:

December 2024, Federal Reserve's first 2026 PCE inflation projection: 2.1%

March 2025: 2.2%

June 2025: 2.4%

September 2025: 2.6%

December 2025: 2.4% (temporary pullback)

March 2026: 2.7%

Six quarters, cumulative upward revision of 0.6 percentage points.

This isn't the first time.

2025 PCE inflation took exactly the same path. December 2024 projection was 2.5%, then sequentially revised upward to 2.7%, 3.0%, 3.0%, 2.9%. The final actual value was 2.9%.

The Fed spent an entire year chasing, finally barely catching up in the last quarter.

Now they're saying 2026 is 2.7%.

Based on their own track record, 2.7% is likely just the starting point, not the finish line.

Not a conspiracy.

Just a pattern.

The Fed's real-time inflation forecasts over the past two years have only gone one direction:

Chasing upwards.

Powell said: I'm not leaving

But tonight's most explosive news isn't about rates.

It's something else.

Powell announced at the press conference: he won't leave before his term expires.

His term ends May 15th.

But he said: "I have no intention of leaving before the investigation is thoroughly completed."

What investigation?

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro is investigating the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project.

And Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump as his successor, was held up in the Banking Committee by Senator Tillis.

On the surface, it's a rate decision meeting.

Underneath, the Federal Reserve chairman's departure is being simultaneously held hostage by both a renovation investigation and one senator's veto power.

Think about it.

Let that sink in.

So what does this mean for us?

Back to the markets.

Bitcoin broke below 71000, down nearly 5% in the past 24 hours.

Ethereum down 6.5%.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) down 5%.

Bitmine (BMNR) down 6%.

Galaxy (GLXY) down nearly 7%.

Gemini (GEMI) down 15%, approaching its lowest point since listing.

All red.

Why?

Because when the Fed started cutting rates in September 2024, the market drew a clear line: interest rates drop to 3.4% by end of 2025, then cut 4 more times.

Six quarters have passed.

Last night's dot plot told us this line has completely broken down.

September 2024, the Fed expected 2026 year-end rates at 2.9%.

Last night: 3.4%.

50 basis points higher than initially expected.

What does 50 basis points mean?

It's your mortgage payment.

It's your leverage.

It's your holding costs.

Another sentence Powell said

At the press conference, someone asked: does the current situation resemble the 1970s stagflation?

Powell laughed.

He said: "That is not the situation we are in now. The unemployment rate remains close to the long-term normal level, and inflation is only slightly above target. I would reserve the term 'stagflation' for more severe circumstances."

Then he added:

"What we are currently facing is a certain tension between our goals. We are trying to find ways to manage this challenge."

Translation into plain language:

We know there's a problem.

But we don't know how to solve it.

Finally, something that stings

Have you noticed a pattern?

Every time the Fed meets, markets wait for "good news."

Every time Powell speaks, markets wait for "dovish signals."

But over the past two years, every time they waited, they got disappointment.

2023: Waited for rate cuts, got rate hikes.

2024: Waited for rate cuts, got "higher for longer."

2025: Waited for rate cuts, got the dot plot moving up.

March 2026: Waited for rate cuts, got a 7:7 split.

Markets are always waiting for the Fed to pivot.

The Fed is always saying: wait a bit longer.

Wait for what?

For inflation to come down.

For data to confirm.

For "the progress we hope for."

But inflation just won't come down.

Data just won't confirm.

"The progress we hope for" just isn't coming.

So markets keep falling.

So Bitcoin keeps churning.

So everyone keeps asking: when will this end?

Nobody knows

Powell himself said it:

"Oil price shocks are reflected in higher inflation expectations."

"But nobody knows how long this impact will last."

Nobody knows.

These four words are tonight's most important message.

Not the dot plot.

Not the inflation forecast.

Not how many rate cuts.

It's the Fed chairman admitting: I don't know.

If even he doesn't know.

If even 19 officials split 7:7.

If inflation forecasts keep chasing upwards forever.

How could you possibly know?

How could you possibly bet?

How could you possibly go all-in?

So what now?

I don't know.

But I know one thing:

When the Fed itself can't see the direction,

The only correct strategy is: don't stand on either side.

Don't bet on rate cuts.

Don't bet on no rate cuts.

Don't bet on inflation coming down.

Don't bet on inflation going up.

Wait.

Wait until some of those 19 people start moving in the same direction.

Wait until Powell says "I know" that day.

Until then.

Cash is king.

Living is more important than making money.

Patience is more valuable than courage.

Forward this to that person still going all-in.

Tell them: it's time to wait. #美联储利率决议