This Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range unchanged, with market consensus at over 99% probability. What deserves attention is that multiple officials at the January meeting proposed removing language suggesting "the next action would be rate cuts." If this modification is implemented this time, it will mark the first time the Fed acknowledges that the easing cycle may have ended, with extremely strong signal implications.

Regarding the dot plot, December's dot plot showed that 12 out of 19 officials projected at least one rate cut this year. However, if just 3 of them change their stance, the median projection could shift to "zero rate cuts," which would exert renewed pressure on BTC. Conversely, if this meeting shows 2 or more rate cuts this year, BTC could be directly pushed to surge toward 80,000 or even higher.

As for Powell's press conference, the Tai Chi master will be responsible for interpreting policy signals for the second-to-last time. However, there's one issue: during the transition period between old and new chairs, capital moves based on expectations. From the chair to board seats, it's inevitable that "the tea cools when people leave," and Powell's statements will have reduced reference value. His remarks on inflation risks and the Middle East situation may reveal the Fed's true inclinations.

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