Fidelity: Bitcoin's Classic Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending

Investors, Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an interesting research report.

They believe that Bitcoin's classic "boom-bust" cyclical pattern may be becoming a thing of the past.

Moreover, the evidence is quite compelling.

At the peak in October 2025, Bitcoin's market cap reached approximately $2.5 trillion.
However, in January 2026, something unusual occurred—its annual realized volatility hit a 17-time historical low.

This has never happened at such an early stage following a historical high before.

In other words:
Price remains near all-time highs, yet the market's performance is calmer than ever before.

What has changed?

The key lies in a shift in demand structure.

Today, close to 12% of Bitcoin's total supply is held by listed companies and ETFs.
Moreover, most of these purchases occurred after 2023.

Let's look at several facts:

— 49 listed companies each hold more than 1,000 Bitcoin
— The largest Bitcoin ETF reached $75 billion in assets under management in less than 2 years
— By comparison, the gold ETF GLD took nearly 7 years to reach the same scale

This indicates that institutional capital is entering this market faster than any emerging asset class in history.

Now, let's examine on-chain data.

In this cycle, the market cap to realized market cap ratio has remained at approximately 2x the realized market cap level.

By comparison:

2013 — approximately 6x
2017 — approximately 4x
2021 — approximately 4x

If the MVRV ratio reaches at least 4x in this cycle, that would mean:

— Market cap reaches approximately $4.5 trillion
— Bitcoin price approximately $225,000

But there's another interesting metric worth paying attention to.

Fidelity introduced a new indicator: the profit volatility ratio.

It measures the ratio between market profit and its volatility.

And surprisingly:

Since late 2023, this indicator has remained stable above 0.015, which is the longest stable period in Bitcoin's history.

Even when price dropped below $70,000 in February 2026, it failed to break this structure.

What might this mean?

Perhaps we are witnessing Bitcoin's transition from a "speculative asset" phase to a "macro asset" phase.

If that's the case, the market landscape may shift:

— No more 80% corrections
— No more extreme euphoric peaks
— More gradual and steady growth instead

But there's one thing to remember here.

Market evolution is rarely linear.
Usually, markets break most people's expectations first, then form new structures.

Therefore, I'm inclined to view these studies as a possibility, one potential scenario for the market's future direction, rather than a definitive prediction.

So, investors, what do you think?

Is Bitcoin still following the old four-year cycle pattern,
or are we gradually entering an entirely new market stage?