比特幣 Ahr999 囤幣指標睽違兩年多首度跌破 0.45，進入「超級便宜區間」、比特幣彩虹圖走勢也透露同樣觀點
（前情提要：比特幣一度跌破微策略「7.6萬美元成本線」，Strategy股價半年蒸發60%加大融資壓力）
（背景補充：Bitwise 投資長預測：比特幣 20 年內衝上 650 萬美元，央行與機構將是下輪牛市推手）
比特幣今（1）日再次急跌，除了讓市場再度進入極度恐慌之外，根據 Coinglass 數據，比特幣 Ahr999 指標正式跌破公認的 0.45 抄底線（現報 0.42）。這是自 2023 年 10 月中以來，睽違約 840 天再次出現極端的低估訊號。
Ahr999 指標的計算公式為：（當前價格 / 200 日成本）×（當前價格 / 指數增長估值）。當數值低於 0.45，代表比特幣價格相對於長期定投成本與增長趨勢已明顯偏離，進入所謂的「超級便宜區間」。
冷靜應對的投資思維
但儘管 Ahr999 指標出現罕見的買入訊號，分析師也提醒，底部可能出現「鈍化」現象，並非跌破就必須立即重倉。歷史數據也顯示雖然 0.45 抄底線附近是買入的好點位，但不代表短期內就會快速拉漲。
比特幣彩虹圖也進入購買區
另一個幣圈用戶可能更常見的比特幣彩虹圖指標，也在一月底睽違一年多再次進入藍色的「特價大甩賣」區間。但同樣要提醒的是，如果比特幣真的入熊，那 BTC 也有大概率觸及藍色區間底部，跌破或逼近 7 萬可能也不是太遠的事。
在 ETF 持續流出、市場情緒低迷的背景下，建議投資者注意風險，持續關注 ETF 流向與 USDT 活期利率變化。將以上指標視為價值投資的起點，而非短期反彈的保證，或許才是更務實的態度。
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