Bạn bè muốn đặt cược vào "Iran Rial": giảm 90% chắc chắn sẽ tăng! Loại xổ số chiến tranh này có thể mua được không?

Iranian rial (IRR) has plummeted over 30 times in just two months, from 42,000 to 1,310,000 per USD, hitting a historic low. Online investors are asking whether, if Trump’s government reaches a nuclear agreement with Iran and sanctions are eased, the rial could rebound massively in the future?
（Background: AI turns war into a game: U.S. military targets 1,000 sites every 24 hours in Iran, “machine speed” becomes the standard）
（Additional context: Saudi oil prices surge by the largest in two years, Asian central banks rush to raise interest rates, Trump: will take all measures to suppress oil prices）

The decline of Iran’s currency, the rial (IRR), has surpassed most historical cases of hyperinflation. In early December 2025, 1 USD was only about 42,000 IRR; by the end of February 2026, it had inflated to 1.31 million, a 96.8% drop in just two months. Using a 35-year cycle, the rial has depreciated over 20,000 times against the dollar.

Currently, while protests by merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar and the Central Bank governor’s resignation are happening, another voice has emerged on Taiwanese social media: “Is now the best time to buy rial?”

If Trump’s government successfully reinitiates nuclear talks with Iran and sanctions are lifted, the frozen oil dollar revenue could return to the market, potentially causing the rial to rebound significantly. This involves extremely high geopolitical risks, and Iran is unlikely to issue new currency as a result.

The question is how to buy

The rial is one of the least liquid currencies globally. Here are some known channels we’ve researched, though they are highly difficult and risky.

Physical currency exchange (Turkey, Dubai, Armenia)
Iran borders or has close dealings with Turkey, Dubai, and Armenia, where some informal currency exchange shops still handle rial. In Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar area and Dubai’s Deira district, there are merchants, but transaction volumes are limited, liquidity is poor, and quotes are opaque, often with exorbitant premiums. The prerequisite is that you can reach these locations.

2. UK ManorFX (small amounts)
   UK forex broker ManorFX is one of the few legitimate providers still offering retail IRR exchange, mainly for travel purposes. The transaction amounts are very small, unsuitable for speculation, and their stock levels are unstable.

3. Cryptocurrency route (USDT → IRR, gray area)
   This is currently the most feasible and controversial channel. Iran has an underground crypto economy worth about $7.8 billion, mainly settled in USDT (Tether). Iran’s largest exchange, Nobitex, allows users to deposit USDT and exchange it for rial.

More notably, the Central Bank of Iran itself is operating in this space, having purchased at least $507 million worth of USDT to buy rial on the free market and prevent further exchange rate collapse. However, Tether froze multiple wallets related to the Iranian central bank in June 2025, totaling 37 million USDT. Investors engaging in this may find themselves unable to withdraw USDT (no access to funds).

Legal red lines investors must know

U.S. Department of the Treasury’s OFAC FAQ Section 608 explicitly states that any financial institution that “knowingly” participates in the buying and selling of IRR, or holds derivatives based on IRR exchange rates, may face sanctions. This regulation discourages U.S. citizens, institutions, and international financial entities with U.S. ties from engaging in such activities.

For individual investors in Taiwan or Asia, although not directly under OFAC jurisdiction, engaging with Iran’s financial system via crypto channels still risks currency reform. The Iranian government has officially approved a currency redenomination plan, removing four zeros and introducing a new currency, the “Toman.” How the old rial will be exchanged remains uncertain.