Lately, I've been seeing everyone use stablecoin supply and ETF net inflows as "guidance signals," and I'm a bit scared... Not long ago, I almost got caught up: seeing stablecoins minted in large numbers + ETF inflows, I naturally thought that off-market funds would push the market, and I almost added back to my positions. Later, I calmly calculated that many times it's just funds switching shells or channels, or the demand for market making and arbitrage, and correlation doesn't really equal causation.

The macro side is also quite tangled: on one hand, talking about rate cut expectations, on the other hand, the US dollar index still moves in tandem with risk assets. Anyway, I don't dare to explain all trends with a single indicator. My current approach remains the same: diversify a bit, chase fewer high-APR gains, and just survive... If the market doesn't give me certainty, I won't force reasons.