Recently, I've seen people claiming that "an increase in stablecoin supply = off-chain money coming in = a quick rally" as an ironclad rule. Honestly, I used to buy into that too; whenever the curve goes up, I get itchy. Now I’ve gotten into the habit of pausing first: an increase in supply could be due to minting, chain swaps, market making reserves, or even just moving money from A to B, which isn't the same as buying pressure. The same applies to ETFs; inflows and outflows often don't synchronize with the market, so don’t treat correlation as causation.

Additionally, before and after some mainstream chains upgrade/maintain, everyone in the group is guessing whether the ecosystem will migrate… I personally care more about whether the DEX depth and routing will deteriorate that night, whether slippage will suddenly spike. I’ll split up trades, set limit orders, and if a migration really happens, I’ll wait until the dust settles. Anyway, I don’t want to pay tuition for "guessing stories."