Santiment: Whale addresses surpass 20,000, Bitcoin is experiencing "strength-weakness rotation" and multi-scenario analysis

Bitcoin market has experienced a deep correction, and its on-chain structure is quietly changing. Santiment, an on-chain data analysis firm, has detected a key milestone: the number of addresses holding at least 100 BTC is about to surpass 20,000. Amid widespread market hesitation, this growth has sparked broad discussions about strength and weakness shifts and market bottoms. Based on Gate’s latest market data and Santiment’s core insights, this article provides an objective overview, logical analysis, and multi-dimensional projection of this phenomenon, aiming to present potential changes in Bitcoin’s current power structure.

Whales’ addresses surpass 20,000, is the market structure changing?

On February 27, 2026, Santiment reported that the number of addresses holding at least 100 BTC was approaching a historical high of 20,000. At current prices, these addresses hold a minimum of over $6.78 million worth of Bitcoin, typically belonging to high-net-worth investors, family offices, funds, and long-term institutional entities. Santiment believes that growth in this metric during price declines is often a sign of accumulation. However, despite the increase in address count, the total supply held by whales has not yet shown a significant jump, which is one reason prices continue to face pressure. This phenomenon is interpreted as a typical strength-weakness shift—chips are gradually moving from panicked retail holders to more capital-strong and patient players.

Source: Santiment

Price correction over 30 days: how are on-chain chips migrating?

Bitcoin’s recent price trend shows clear oscillating downward movement. According to Gate data, as of February 27, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $67,692. Over the past 30 days, its price has decreased by 25.91%, falling from a peak of $126,080 to the current level. Market sentiment remains neutral, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears.

During this correction, on-chain data has shown structural changes. Looking back in time:

• Early decline: panic spreads, some short-term holders and leveraged positions are forced to exit, increasing trading volume.
• Continued pressure: as prices oscillate in low ranges, retail selling pressure diminishes, but active buying remains insufficient.
• Current stage: Santiment reports an increase in addresses holding 100+ BTC. This suggests that, at the most pessimistic or uncertain moments, well-funded entities are selectively absorbing chips. This process is gradual, not instant, occurring amid repeated bottoming attempts, creating a unique pattern of increasing whale addresses without a corresponding price rise.

Growth in number but stable share: what signals does this send?

Factually, we need to distinguish two key data points:

• Increase in whale addresses: approaching 20,000 addresses holding at least 100 BTC. This indicates a growth in quantity, meaning more independent entities are joining the whale ranks.
• Stable total supply share: Santiment also notes that the proportion of total supply held by these key stakeholders (the whales) has not significantly increased.

The combination of these facts forms the starting point for market structure analysis. One interpretation is that the new whales’ accumulation may be offset by some existing whales reducing or dispersing their holdings. This suggests a decline in top concentration, a broader distribution of chips, but the new buying power has not yet resulted in net inflows strong enough to push prices higher.

This depicts a chip redistribution scenario: stronger entities are absorbing chips sold by panicked or profit-taking retail investors who exited too early. It’s a typical bottom accumulation pattern, but its duration and ultimate effect depend on subsequent capital inflows and market confidence recovery.

Divergence in the market: precursor to accumulation or structural divergence?

There is clear disagreement in the market regarding this data, mainly falling into two camps:

• Optimists (accumulation phase): believe the growth in whale addresses is a bullish signal. It indicates that the smartest money is entering at lows, and historically, large accumulation phases are followed by significant price rebounds. This suggests the market’s foundation is strengthening and long-term value is being recognized.
• Cautious (structural divergence): argue that merely increasing address count is insufficient to confirm a bottom. The key is that the total supply share has not increased accordingly, implying internal disagreement among whales or that new entrants lack the scale to offset selling pressure. Persistent price pressure confirms this, and the market may need deeper dips or longer consolidation to absorb selling.

The reality and limitations of strength-weakness shifts

The narrative of strength-weakness shifts is logically sound, based on recurring patterns in historical cycles. The behavior of retail investors during extreme conditions—panic selling or early profit-taking—is highly predictable. The increase in whale addresses indeed supports the hypothesis that strong hands are stepping in.

However, we must also consider information asymmetry. An on-chain address count increase does not necessarily equate to linear growth in buying power. One address may represent a single entity, or a new wallet created by an entity for asset management or risk control. Therefore, address growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for strength-weakness shifts. The true picture is likely a complex combination: some genuine buying, some internal asset reorganization, and some splitting of existing whale holdings. Its core value lies in trend observation rather than precise buy/sell signals.

How does chip centralization affect future markets?

This structural change impacts the crypto industry on multiple levels:

• Market structure: ongoing strength-weakness shifts reduce floating supply, locking chips in the hands of more patient holders. This can lower potential selling pressure and lay a more solid foundation for future rallies.
• Investor behavior: widespread awareness of on-chain chip structure is changing decision-making frameworks. Beyond price, more participants are using on-chain data to gauge market stages, accelerating the “strong get stronger” effect and encouraging capital to follow whale footprints.
• Industry confidence: during downturns, the growth in whale addresses acts as a confidence booster, signaling that long-term value remains intact despite bearish sentiment.

Three possible paths and their logical basis

Based on current facts, we can project several future scenarios:

Scenario 1: Accumulation completes, trend reverses (medium-high probability)

• Logic: if prices consolidate in this zone and whale address count and supply share increase steadily, then once selling pressure is absorbed, positive catalysts (macro policy clarity, regulatory breakthroughs) could trigger a supply-demand reversal, pushing prices into a new upward phase.

Scenario 2: Accumulation fails, price breaks down (medium-low probability)

• Logic: if macro conditions worsen sharply or new black swan events occur in crypto, triggering systemic sell-offs, even accumulating whales might pause or sell due to liquidity needs or risk aversion. This could halt address growth and lead to further price declines.

Scenario 3: Structural divergence, structural market (medium probability)

• Logic: the market may not immediately enter a broad bull phase but instead develop a structural pattern dominated by whales. Bitcoin and core assets may show resilience due to strength-weakness shifts, while altcoins face continued capital outflows. Internal market segmentation could intensify.

Conclusion

Santiment’s data indicating that addresses holding 100+ BTC are about to surpass 20,000 provides a valuable internal perspective on the current subdued Bitcoin market. It is neither a simple bullish signal nor meaningless fluctuation but reflects a subtle shift in market power. Bitcoin is undergoing a silent strength-weakness shift, and its outcome will profoundly influence the next market phase. For participants, rather than speculating on short-term price movements, paying close attention to the evolving on-chain chip structure offers a more reliable indicator of future trends.