The Changing Structure of the Crypto Market: After Bitcoin Decouples from Tech Stocks, Where Is the New Pricing Anchor?

The cryptocurrency market at the beginning of 2026 is undergoing a profound restructuring of its underlying logic, deeper than just price fluctuations. A key signal is that the once highly synchronized movement between Bitcoin and ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF), a representative of tech growth stocks, is now experiencing a historic divergence.

In recent years, Bitcoin and ARKK have been viewed as two sides of the same coin—both relying on loose monetary environments to expand valuations rather than on their own cash flows. However, since mid-2025, this stable correlation has been broken: while AI leading stocks continue to rise supported by strong earnings, Bitcoin has failed to keep pace, instead aligning more with gold and commodities. This decoupling is not just a fluctuation in correlation but suggests a systemic reset in global liquidity allocation, the attributes of crypto assets, and market pricing mechanisms.

Background and Timeline of Divergence

To understand this “big split,” we need to trace the evolution of liquidity-driven logic.

Before the GPT moment: Resonance phase

Before ChatGPT ignited the AI wave, Bitcoin and ARKK shared the same macro DNA: both are assets characterized by “valuation expansion without value expansion.” At that time, their prices were mainly driven by the liquidity released by global central banks, making their movements highly similar.

After the GPT moment: Divergence phase

With breakthroughs in AI technology, tech companies represented by ARKK components began generating real earnings and cash flows, shifting their valuation logic from “liquidity dependence” to “profitability-driven.” This shift was further reinforced after the explosion of AI applications like DeepSeek, with valuation anchors returning to fundamentals.

Mid-2025 to present: Historic decoupling period

A critical turning point occurred in mid-2025. Despite the continued complexity of the global liquidity environment, Bitcoin failed to keep pace with ARKK’s rise. This marked a fundamental shift in capital preferences: funds are moving away from assets solely reliant on valuation expansion toward AI growth stocks that can be valued based on real cash flows. As of February 27, 2026, according to Gate data, Bitcoin has been persistently searching for a bottom under macro pressure, with its divergence from tech stocks becoming more pronounced.

Data and Structural Analysis

Beneath the surface of decoupling, there is a resonance of three liquidity tightening factors and internal market structural changes.

Triple Liquidity Drain

First, large-scale unwinding of yen carry trades acted as a catalyst. As the Bank of Japan’s negative interest rate expectations waned, the logic of borrowing yen to invest in high-yield assets (including crypto) collapsed, causing a capital outflow from risk assets. Second, the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) rebuilding process has been absorbing liquidity from the banking system, with nearly $200 billion drained between February and March, directly suppressing institutional risk exposure. Third, deleveraging in derivatives markets intensified selling pressure; CME’s margin hikes set an example that propagated into crypto markets, triggering chain reactions of liquidations.

Market Microstructure Fragility

The current market exhibits a strange coexistence of “liquidity exhaustion and high volatility.” On-chain data shows that whale ratios on exchanges hit recent highs, as large whales withdraw assets, reducing floating supply and making prices vulnerable to sharp spikes from any buy or sell order. In this environment, price discovery is distorted, and linear bull-bear thinking has become ineffective.

Shift in Pricing Anchors

From asset relative valuation, U.S. stocks are at historically high valuations (S&P 500 forward P/E at 22), with expected future returns declining, forcing rational investors to reassess risk asset portfolios. Cryptocurrencies, as “marginal risk assets,” are often among the first to be cut. Bitcoin and global M2 money supply are experiencing the largest divergence in history, indicating that its original liquidity-driven model is under challenge.

Market Sentiment and Perspectives

Regarding the “big split,” two core narratives have emerged.

A: AI “bloodletting” and liquidity rotation

Dovey Wan, founder of Primitive Ventures, suggests that the divergence between Bitcoin and ARKK stems from a deeper structural change—AI is becoming a new “liquidity black hole.” The AI sector not only generates significant cash flows but also, through IPOs of unicorns like SpaceX (rumored to go public mid-2026 with a $1.5 trillion valuation and raising up to $50 billion), exerts a massive “blood-sucking” effect on global risk assets. From this perspective, crypto markets are no longer the primary recipients of incremental liquidity but are instead being drained.

B: Macro-driven re-pricing

Another view attributes the decoupling to a fundamental change in macro conditions. Binance Research notes that the current mechanical correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks is a phase following the approval of spot ETFs—initially, institutions grouped them as high-volatility tech factors. But with real interest rates remaining high, money market funds have become attractive alternatives, prompting a re-evaluation of crypto’s fundamental attributes. FT Chinese also supports this view: crypto assets are systematically shedding their “tech growth” premium, with their volatility beginning to resemble gold and commodities, shifting the pricing factors from internal narratives to macro liquidity.

Evaluating the Narratives’ Validity

While the market discusses “AI bloodletting” and “macro re-pricing,” we must critically assess the authenticity and limitations of these narratives.

The “AI bloodletting” theory straightforwardly explains the flow of funds but may overestimate short-term impacts and underestimate the cyclical forces within crypto itself. AI companies do absorb liquidity, but recent crypto adjustments also have endogenous reasons, such as the systemic decline in value capture ability of Layer 1 blockchains: Bitcoin’s transaction fee revenue as a share of miner rewards has fallen below 1%, and Ethereum’s Layer 1 fee income has shrunk over 95% from its 2021 peak. This indicates that even without AI competition, crypto networks face structural profit compression issues.

The “macro re-pricing” argument, though logically rigorous, might overemphasize external factors. The correlation between Bitcoin, stocks, and gold is dynamic; historical data shows that sharp divergences are often followed by significant convergence. The current decoupling could be a permanent shift in valuation logic or a temporary misalignment during macro cycles.

Industry Impact Analysis

Regardless of the cause, the “big split” has already reshaped the crypto industry substantively.

Asset Attribute Reclassification: Crypto assets are shedding their single “risk tech” label, moving toward more nuanced attribute distinctions. Bitcoin is accelerating its return to “digital gold” or macro hedge status, while tokens of public chains like Ethereum, due to their deep linkage with on-chain activity, are increasingly valued based on real-world applications and cash flows. Grayscale’s latest research also notes that while Bitcoin’s short-term movements resonate with growth stocks, its long-term store-of-value narrative remains intact.

Valuation Model Adjustments: The market is no longer buying purely narrative-driven valuations. Slogans like “deflationary expectations” and “technological disruption” have lost influence amid liquidity withdrawal. Ethereum’s long-term low gas fees due to Layer 2 sharding and the shift of tokens into inflationary states undermine its “supersonic currency” valuation base. Future valuations will rely more on verifiable data, such as on-chain activity, stablecoin market cap changes, and real economic value capture.

Evolution of Competitive Landscape: As incremental capital no longer flows automatically, competition among existing assets intensifies. Layer 1 blockchains no longer compete on “vision” but on attracting developers, real users, and actual cash flows. Meanwhile, RWA (real-world assets) and stablecoins are becoming key channels for industry integration with mainstream finance. Blockchain technology is shifting from “creating new assets” to “optimizing old assets,” serving as the foundational infrastructure.

Multi-scenario Evolution

Based on the above, the future of crypto asset pricing may follow three paths:

Scenario 1: Macro convergence, logic reset

If the Fed begins a rate-cut cycle and global M2 resumes expansion, while tech stocks cool after AI narratives fade, capital may reallocate to valuation bargains. In this case, Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks could recover, but the speed of recovery depends on whether the crypto market can develop new growth narratives. Binance Research estimates this convergence could occur between late 2026 and early 2027.

Scenario 2: Long-term divergence, dual-track pricing

If AI continues to deliver earnings and “bloodletting events” like SpaceX IPOs happen repeatedly, risk assets may enter a long-term divergence phase. Bitcoin would fully detach from tech stocks, becoming a “non-sovereign hard asset” aligned with gold and commodities; Ethereum and other public chain tokens would more closely tie their valuation to on-chain activity and protocol revenue. The crypto market would develop a permanent valuation hierarchy between “core assets” and “altcoins.”

Scenario 3: Liquidity exhaustion, systemic revaluation

The most pessimistic scenario involves yen carry unwinding, TGA drain, and deleveraging in derivatives creating a negative spiral, coupled with global recession risks, leading to systemic risk asset sell-offs. In this scenario, crypto markets would experience a true “death spiral”—prices continuously bottoming out, trading volumes collapsing, and the industry entering a brutal cleanup phase. Only projects with strong cash flows and real use cases could survive.

Regardless of the path, one thing is certain: the era of “buy blindly and profit passively” in crypto is over. In the context of liquidity “big split,” understanding asset attributes deeply, accurately interpreting macro signals, and rationally assessing intrinsic value will be the only way for investors to navigate the cycle.