From Hal Finney's "Running Bitcoin" Vision to Today's ETF Reality: A 15-Year Journey

Exactly 15 years after the cryptographic pioneer Hal Finney sent his famous “Running bitcoin” message on January 11, 2009, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission delivered a watershed moment for digital assets. The bitcoin market finally gained access to spot exchange-traded funds, marking the endpoint of over a decade of institutional resistance. That same iconic figure who ran Bitcoin’s code first and believed fervently in its potential would never live to witness this vindication—Finney passed away in August 2014—yet his legacy permeates every aspect of this milestone.

The Prophet Who Ran Bitcoin First: Understanding Hal Finney’s Foresight

When Hal Finney announced his intention to run the Bitcoin software, few could have imagined the path it would set. Beyond merely being the earliest adopter after Satoshi Nakamoto himself, Finney demonstrated prophetic insight into Bitcoin’s potential. In correspondence with Nakamoto, Finney estimated that if even a fraction of global household wealth flowed into Bitcoin, the asset could eventually reach valuations previously thought impossible—positioning each of the 21 million coins potentially worth approximately $10 million in future scenarios.

This wasn’t mere speculation. Finney understood the fundamental architecture of what Nakamoto had created: a trustless, borderless, and censorship-resistant monetary system. His willingness to run the code when it existed only in theory demonstrated conviction that would define the early Bitcoin community.

SEC Green Light: How Spot Bitcoin ETFs Finally Arrived

After years of regulatory rejection—beginning with the Winklevoss twins’ application in 2013 and Grayscale’s persistent efforts since 2017—Wednesday brought institutional validation. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, received approval for its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, alongside Fidelity’s competing product. Grayscale successfully converted its existing Bitcoin Trust into an ETF structure. Additional providers including ARK, Bitwise, and Invesco entered the market with competitive fee structures starting from zero percent for initial periods, while Grayscale’s offering carries a 1.5% management fee.

These products eliminate critical barriers to institutional adoption. Rather than managing wallets, handling private keys, or navigating custody complexities, traditional investors and fund managers can now gain Bitcoin exposure through familiar brokerage infrastructure. The approval represents not merely a product launch but a structural acknowledgment that Bitcoin has evolved from fringe technology to legitimate alternative asset class.

Wall Street Embraces Bitcoin: The Institutional Transformation

Bitcoin’s journey from anti-establishment technology to Wall Street darling presents an apparent paradox. Originally conceived as an escape from traditional banking systems, Bitcoin now depends on those very institutions for mass adoption. Yet this transformation shouldn’t surprise observers who understood the asset’s ultimate thesis: a scarce, mathematically defined store of value accessible to anyone, anywhere.

The ETF approvals accelerate this integration. Pension funds, university endowments, insurance companies, and retail investors through standard brokerage accounts can now participate without technical expertise or custody concerns. This democratization aligns with Finney’s original vision—not that Bitcoin would overthrow the financial system, but that it would ultimately become woven into it as a portfolio component.

Price Performance and Market Realities

As of late February 2026, Bitcoin trades near $67.94K, having recently tested resistance levels near $70,000. The asset has shattered previous conception of valuation ceilings, with an all-time high now exceeding $126,000—far surpassing the $69,000 peak from 2021 that seemed insurmountable just years ago. Finney’s $10 million per coin projection, once dismissed as fantasy, appears progressively less absurd with each market cycle.

Meanwhile, altcoins including Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin have meaningfully outperformed Bitcoin on a percentage basis since the ETF approvals. This rotation into higher-volatility assets signals renewed risk appetite and confidence in the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem beyond Bitcoin alone. The market’s breadth suggests institutional capital is expanding exploration across digital assets rather than concentrating solely on Bitcoin exposure.

Medium-Term Outlook: Opportunities and Cautionary Notes

Despite the celebratory tone surrounding ETF approvals, analysts caution that structural uncertainties persist. Stablecoin supply remains relatively stagnant, providing less fuel for speculative demand cycles. Macroeconomic headwinds continue affecting risk asset valuations. Most critically, Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory faces a crucial support level around $60,000—should liquidation cascades occur below that threshold, confidence could evaporate rapidly.

Hal Finney’s foresight about Bitcoin’s ultimate potential has proven remarkably prescient, yet market dynamics remain complex. The 15-year anniversary moment—where an idealistic pioneer’s early commitment transforms into trillion-dollar institutional reality—represents not an ending but a new chapter. Whether Bitcoin sustains current valuations and continues appreciating toward Finney’s ambitious projections depends on factors extending far beyond the symbolic significance of SEC approval. What remains certain is that Finney’s decision to run Bitcoin that January day in 2009 fundamentally altered financial technology’s trajectory forever.