U.S. CPI data market indicator, gold and dollar trends will迎 a turning point

Investors are focusing on the upcoming U.S. December inflation data. The importance of this data lies not only in its figures but also in how it will influence the next movement of global financial assets. In the current environment, unless inflation data unexpectedly surges, the overall trend still favors a rise in gold.

U.S. CPI Expectations and Market Consensus

According to widespread market forecasts, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is expected to remain at an annual rate of 2.7%, with a monthly increase of 0.3%. The core CPI is slightly different, with an expected annual rate rising from 2.6% to 2.7%, and a monthly increase from 0.2% to 0.3%. These expected figures reflect the market’s basic view on inflation trends.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer a different perspective. They predict that the December core CPI will show a relatively significant monthly increase of 0.36%. However, this global investment bank points out that this rebound is mainly driven by statistical distortions caused during the government shutdown period, rather than a genuine rise in inflation pressures. This distinction is important for policymakers and market participants.

Federal Reserve Attitudes and Rate Cut Expectations

Federal Reserve officials are well aware of the statistical distortions behind this data. Based on this understanding, the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in January and is unlikely to change its short-term rate policy solely due to a single month’s high data.

According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently expects the Fed to first cut rates in June 2026, with a probability of 68.9%. This expectation has become a key psychological benchmark in the current market.

Asymmetrical Impact of U.S. CPI Data

Morgan Stanley highlights a critical asymmetry: if December’s CPI data shows strong performance, the market is likely to interpret it as a “statistical distortion” and discount it; conversely, if the data is weak, it may be seen as a strong signal of cooling inflation.

This asymmetry means that below-expected CPI data could significantly boost rate-sensitive assets like gold, while data meeting or slightly exceeding expectations may not trigger a strong market reaction.

Gold and Dollar: A Dual Bet

The release of U.S. CPI data will directly determine the near-term trends of gold and the dollar. If December’s CPI comes in below expectations, it will support expectations for rate cuts, which is positive for gold and could push prices to new highs. As a rate-sensitive asset, gold is naturally sensitive to rate cut prospects.

Conversely, if CPI data significantly exceeds expectations, it will dampen rate cut expectations and bolster the dollar’s strength. In this scenario, dollar appreciation will be beneficial, but gold may face downward pressure.

Investor Risk Considerations

This U.S. CPI data carries more than just statistical significance; it represents the market’s collective judgment on future monetary policy directions. Investors need to prepare for extreme scenarios—whether gold breaking new highs or the dollar rebounding strongly. Currently, the market is in a dialogue phase between policy signals and actual data, with the CPI release poised to be a key moment in this conversation.