Has Tesla's 'iPhone Moment' Arrived?

When Apple (AAPL +2.28%) introduced the iPhone in 2007, the company struck a chord. The idea of combining productivity features from its computers with music, photography, and other applications gave birth to a device no one knew they needed: a phone that is also an on-the-go, handheld computer.

The iPhone has undoubtedly become a revolutionary product for Apple as the device transformed the company from personal computing to a comprehensive consumer electronics and services business.

Whether investors realize it or not, Tesla (TSLA +2.45%) may be on the cusp of making a similar pivot. Let’s explore how Tesla is moving beyond electric vehicles as it seeks to build a robotics platform powered by artificial intelligence (AI).

Image source: Tesla.

Elon Musk just went all-in on Optimus

For years, Elon Musk has expressed a vision to build a fleet of autonomous humanoid robots. The use case here is to implement the robots in factories, retail, and even in households – adding unprecedented efficiency gains to the labor force.

During Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings call, Musk told investors that the company will be winding down production of the Model S and X vehicles at its Fremont, California, facility and subsequently repurposing the factory for Optimus buildouts.

Musk went on to say that initial production for Optimus would “probably” begin by the end of the year.

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NASDAQ: TSLA

Tesla

Today’s Change

(2.45%) $9.80

Current Price

$409.63

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$1.5T

Day’s Range

$397.65 - $410.82

52wk Range

$214.25 - $498.83

Volume

2.8M

Avg Vol

66M

Gross Margin

18.03%

Why Optimus could be Tesla’s version of the iPhone

Prior to the iPhone, Apple’s main source of business stemmed from computer sales. While the company witnessed enormous success with laptops and desktops, the dynamics of hardware upgrade cycles essentially forced Apple to innovate and release new products every few years.

Tesla has long followed a similar journey. After all, it’s not as if people buy a new car often. Until now, most of Tesla’s innovation efforts revolved around spotting preferences within the automobile market and working around those trends to design new vehicle models.

With the iPhone, Apple was able to create a lucrative services business to complement the cyclical nature of computer sales. I think Tesla will employ a similar playbook with Optimus.

First, Tesla will sell the robot itself – no different from other non-recurring hardware sales. But like iPhone services, Optimus users may also pay a subscription fee to access Tesla’s proprietary autonomous system software so the robot can actually perform and upgrade to new, more complex tasks.

Is Tesla stock a buy in 2026?

Since cratering last April following the Trump administration’s tariff announcement, shares of Tesla gained 62%. The chart below illustrates that investors enjoyed pronounced run-ups throughout the summer and fall in particular.

TSLA data by YCharts

Over the last several quarters, Tesla’s electric vehicles segment has been decelerating. In turn, the company’s revenue and cash flow profiles are in the gutter.

The truth is that hype from Tesla’s AI opportunity currently outweighs the nature of the company’s sluggish operation – hence, investors are buying a narrative over a business right now.

I think smart investors should wait and see if Musk’s production timeline for Optimus actually comes to fruition. If there are delays heading into the end of the year, Tesla stock could plummet as anticipation and excitement meet anxiety and panic.

For these reasons, I don’t think following momentum is a prudent decision for investors. While Optimus could be a game changer, Tesla still has a lot to prove before its iPhone moment becomes reality.