[Red Envelope] Index recovers the 211 high ground (Live at 8 PM tomorrow night)

Spotting opportunities during market watch and reviewing to clarify direction.[Taogu Ba]
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Watching closely and reviewing repeatedly helps us understand others; then we need to understand ourselves, and finally choose the right time to act.**
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Stock trading isn’t based on guesses. Those who profit often have one of two qualities: foresight (prediction) or adaptability during trading (following).**

Market Overview:
All three major indices opened high and continued upward. The Shanghai Composite recovered above the 211 high ground. The next resistance levels are 129 and 114. Market volume increased significantly from yesterday to 2.46 trillion. Weekly performance: Monday +3700+, Tuesday +3500+.
Index movements: early rally in securities indicated the market was serious today. From large volume contraction at opening to sustained contraction, then gradually increasing volume after market reaction. AI hardware company Shenghong Technology led a rally, boosting Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng. Top trading stocks maintained strong activity, prompting internal sector follow-through and causing indices to surge. In the afternoon, banks and securities firms sold off to cool the market. The top ten stocks by trading volume mostly opened higher, but when financials sold off, traders quickly understood and adjusted accordingly. As indices retreated, market sentiment waned. After 2:30 pm, Shanghai Index regained momentum, closing just above 211. This completes the day’s index movements: morning gave confidence, afternoon warned, and late session reassured. Do you accept or resist this trading dynamic?
In the short term, risk-averse sectors like oil and gas pulled back after gains, while metals and chemicals continued their rally.
Trend directions: In the morning, PCB rotation within AI hardware and CPO; in the afternoon, semiconductors and chips strengthened.
Theme directions: Morning focus on computing power vs. aerospace; aerospace outperformed. Near market close, computing power applications saw buying rush.
Market’s number of limit-up stocks: 75, down from 92 yesterday. Success rate of hitting the limit: 68%, down from 69%. Number of consecutive limit-up stocks: 18, up from 7 yesterday.

Consecutive Limit-up Tiers:
5-day: Yunnan Energy Holdings (power, computing power)
3-day: Hanlan Co. (power)
3-day: Farsight (fiber optics, asset sale), Roman Co. (computing power, liquid cooling)
2-day: Jintao Titanium (chemical), Fenghua High-tech (MLCC), Yufan Tech (infrastructure, new stocks), Jinchengda (chemical), Zhengzhong Design (AI applications), Chengxing Co. (chemical), Yuntianhua (chemical), Jiang Wuzhuang (metals), Liuguo Chemical (chemical), Intercontinental Oil & Gas, COSCO Shipping, Hebang Bio, Zai Sheng Tech (aerospace), Spacetime Tech (storage)

From the tier perspective:
Market resistance is at 5-6 consecutive limit-ups. Tomorrow, challenge this resistance, with a downward 2-limit node as a target, mainly involving chemical, metals, and oil & gas sectors.

First praise, then observe; develop good habits, persist, and profit daily.
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Market Summary:
Trend directions: AI hardware, storage, robotics, etc.
Theme directions: AI applications, computing power, aerospace, etc.
Risk-averse sectors: Oil & gas, precious metals, chemicals.
Price increase lines: AI hardware, chemicals, storage, etc.

1. Trend Directions: AI hardware, chips, semiconductors, etc.
1.1 AI Hardware
Major hardware stocks: Yesterday, Tianfu Communications led the CPO sector. Today, Shenghong Technology led PCB sector, with internal rotation between CPO and PCB.
Fiber optics stocks that surged yesterday are now adjusting; sub-sectors like copper foil, resins, electronic fabrics are strengthening.
Fiber optics sub-sector:
Leading: Longfei Fiber, followed by Hengtong Optoelectronics, Tongding Interconnection, Zhongtian Technology, etc., all adjusting.
Consecutive limit-ups: Farsight advanced to 3 days.
Upstream fiber materials: Feikai Materials and Quartz Co. showed some activity.
Stage rally: Tashan Technology, with 2x gains, started to decline after high. This indicates high resistance ahead for the sector.

PCB sector:
Copper foil trio: Defu Tech (HVLP4), Tongguan Copper Foil (HVLP4), Longyang Electronics (HVLP5). The 4-levels are stronger due to actual deployment; 5-levels depend on news like Nvidia’s earnings or GTC conferences.
Electronic fabrics: Guojie Composites, Honghe Tech, China Stone, with mixed intra-day performance. These are second-generation fabrics similar to HVLP4 copper foil; third-generation Q-fabrics like Feilihua are also rallying, driven by production expectations.
Drill bit tools: Zhongwu High-tech leads, with Dingtai High-tech, Ouke Yi also performing well.
High-end PCB: Mingyang Circuit, a mini version of Shenghong Tech, briefly hit limit-up but was eventually sold off. Many hardware stocks face similar fates, e.g., Dongcai Tech yesterday, Yongding Co. previously hyped by CPO. The stronger the logic, the more intense the hidden positions; look at the 5-day trend.
Resins: Dongcai Tech leads, followed by Shengquan Group and Huibao New Materials. After a large sell-off yesterday, Dongcai Tech rebounded today.

Overall, yesterday’s focus was fiber optics; today, PCB. The afternoon’s market plunge halted the momentum, but the sector remained strong overall. Key upcoming events: tonight’s Nvidia earnings report and GTC conference.

1.2 Chips and Semiconductors
In the afternoon, during the market plunge, storage and semiconductor equipment moved.
Storage:
Yekang Silicon
Sentiment stocks: Spacetime Tech.
Testing & packaging: Shenke Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, Huadian Tech.
Yesterday’s external storage stocks also adjusted.
Semiconductor equipment: Front-end, back-end, target materials.
Target materials: Jiangfeng Electronics led, with Yekang New Materials, Longhua Tech also performing well.
Semiconductor equipment: Tuojing, Changchuan, Jingce all showed strength.
Overall, the strength in chips and semiconductors was concentrated during the afternoon dip, weaker than morning’s AI hardware rally. Main catalysts: Longcun’s expansion plans; the rotation pattern is similar to storage and PCB rotation with CPO.

2. Theme Directions: AI applications, computing power, aerospace, etc.
2.1 Applications:
Data sector corrected and recovered:
Xinghuan Tech, Haoliang Data, Guoan Tech, CITIC Publishing rebounded.

Yesterday, MR dual leaders: Jiachuang Video and Fengyu Zhu both dipped in the afternoon.

Main board capacity battle: Lio Co. vs. Zhejiang Wenhu Lian. Lio Co. has performed strongly for two days; whether it can break through and establish dominance is a key focus for the sector’s future capacity.

2.2 Computing Power:
Main board capacity: Huasheng Tiancheng, recovered after a correction, surpassing pre-rally high, tomorrow’s direction to be watched.
Low-tier trend: Gans Consulting, a stock with 5-day trend, resilient to sector fluctuations, an upgraded version of Data Port.
Roman Co. hit 3 consecutive limit-ups, showing strength similar to Ligong Electronics.
Details: Sector resistance is high; Chuangban capacity struggles.
Application side: Blue Cursor’s inactivity, Kunlun Wanyuan following Zhipu’s decline, and on computing power, Runze Tech attempted a rebound but failed; Capital Online sharply declined; Wangsu Tech shows fatigue.

Today’s application sector recovery was slightly stronger than computing power, which was initially hindered by aerospace sector strength. In the afternoon, near the close, it began to slowly rebound, with some buying. If it continues to rebound tomorrow, there’s hope; if not, expectations should be lowered. It’s time to choose a direction.

2.3 Aerospace:
Julite Rigging continues to attempt replicating last year’s Zhongyida, but failed to hit limit-up. Whether it can rebound again depends on the 30-day moving average, a key point in multi-wave market patterns.
Aerospace development: afternoon recovery and rebound, stimulating sector activity. If sustained, it could stabilize the overall sector.
Low-tier segments: Focused on leading stocks like Julite, with aerospace mainly driven by old, oversold rebounds.

3. Risk-averse sectors:
Chemicals:
Leading: Baichuan Shares attempted to rise early but failed, then fell back. Runtu also gave up early.
Various chemical sub-sectors are catching up, with phosphates the strongest. Sector resistance remains below Baichuan and Runtu.

Metals:
Gold continues to rise, with new interest in rare earths.
The more chaotic the market, the more favorable these sectors become.

4. Market Heights:
Dingguo Jichuang and Tianzhong Precision: Dingguo continues to challenge resistance; Tianzhong breaks above 30-day and 200% deviation levels. Tomorrow’s performance is a key indicator.
Main board multi-wave resistance: Julite Rigging, currently at 200% resistance; whether it can form a third wave is a focus.
1x resistance: Chemical stocks Baichuan Shares and Runtu. Can they push above 200%?
Consecutive limit-up height: 5-6 levels resistance; failure to break through indicates most mid-cap stocks are stuck in a deep water or downtrend.
Other sectors: The sector’s early move depends on whether Chuangban can give positive signals. The market has long awaited a breakthrough; salute to the brave who push for it.

5. Summary:
Overall, the market is still in the stage of rebound verification.
PCB sector: catching up with CPO.
Computing power: catching up with applications.
Metals: catching up with gold.
Phosphates: waiting for chemical sector rebound.
This is viewed from a rebound perspective; the rotation is highly fragmented.
Alternatively, from a new cycle trend perspective:
Yesterday marked a new starting point for the market; AI hardware led two days of resonance, entering a trend-driven phase. Whether it can sustain a resonance rally is a key future focus.
Another view: market driven by pure price increases; most stocks are in a struggling, sluggish state.
Yesterday, the market volume surged in the afternoon then shrank; today, volume shrank in the morning then surged in the afternoon. How will tomorrow unfold? Let’s wait and see.
There’s a live broadcast at 8 PM tomorrow. Interested friends can join to chat.

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These are personal analyses and may not suit everyone. This is how I currently operate. If you find it unsuitable, just ignore it. No harsh words needed. If it helps you, I am glad.
The bull market in China A-shares is ongoing, but it’s within individual stocks, not indices. Catching the right stocks means being in a bull market; missing them, even if indices soar, leaves you in a bear market.
Disclaimer: The above review, posts, and comments are for entertainment and reference only. They are not investment advice. Do not trade solely based on this. The stock market involves risks; invest cautiously! Remember: There are no stock gods in China A-shares!
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Disclaimer: This article records my personal operations. Investing involves risks. Trade cautiously. Plans can’t keep up with market changes. Follow the market movements. The content reflects my personal thoughts and records, for sharing only. It does not constitute investment advice. Trade at your own risk.

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