#Solana发布量子路线图 Quantum Computing Arrives: The End of Cryptocurrency or a New Beginning?
A study that shocked the entire crypto community
In early 2026, Google's Quantum AI team released a white paper, causing a sensation in the cryptocurrency community. The research conclusion is alarming: the resources required for quantum computers to crack the elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) used by Bitcoin and Ethereum are 20 times less than previous industry estimates. More specifically, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically derive the private key from a public key in 9 minutes. And Bitcoin's block time is exactly 10 minutes. This means that from the moment a Bitcoin transaction is broadcast to the network and the public key is exposed, an attacker theoretically has a very narrow but real window to steal the funds before the transaction is included in a block. This type of attack is called "On-Spend Attack" by researchers.
Ethereum researcher Justin Drake, upon seeing this report, said bluntly: "My confidence in Q-Day (quantum threat day) before 2032 has greatly increased. I believe that by 2032, the probability of a quantum computer recovering a private key from an exposed public key is at least 10%."
What is quantum computing? Why can it crack encryption?
To understand this threat, we need to first understand the basic principles of quantum computing. Traditional computers use "bits" as the basic unit, each of which can only be 0 or 1. Quantum computers use "qubits," which leverage quantum superposition, allowing a qubit to be in a superposition of 0 and 1 simultaneously. This gives quantum computers far greater parallel processing power for certain specific problems. The security of Bitcoin and Ethereum is based on elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA). The security of this algorithm relies on a mathematical hard problem: given a public key, it is infeasible to derive the private key in a reasonable time. For traditional computers, cracking a 256-bit elliptic curve key would take longer than the age of the universe. But quantum computers are different.
In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor proposed the famous Shor algorithm, proving that quantum computers can factor large integers and solve discrete logarithm problems in polynomial time — which are the mathematical foundations of ECDSA. In other words, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could easily crack the encryption systems of all major blockchains today.
Google's latest research has reduced the estimated number of physical qubits needed to break ECDLP-256 (the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem) from hundreds of thousands to less than 500k. This is a milestone breakthrough, meaning that the "quantum threat day" is closer than we thought.
Who is most at risk? Ethereum's "Static Attack" vulnerability
If Bitcoin faces a "narrow window of real-time attack," Ethereum faces an even more severe threat — "At-Rest Attack."
Ethereum's account model differs from Bitcoin's. When an Ethereum account makes its first transaction, its public key is permanently exposed on the blockchain. Attackers don't need to race against time like with Bitcoin; they can slowly and calmly use quantum computers to derive the private key and then empty the account at any time. Google's research estimates that the 1,000 richest exposed Ethereum accounts, holding about 20.5 million ETH, could all be cracked in less than 9 days. This is not a distant hypothetical but a quantifiable risk at the technical level.
Current situation: Who is actively responding, and who is "burying their head in the sand"?
Faced with this threat, the crypto community's reactions are clearly divided.
✅ Ethereum: Roadmap in place, actively advancing
The Ethereum Foundation officially established the "Post-Quantum Ethereum" dedicated team in early 2026 and released a detailed post-quantum cryptography migration roadmap, aiming to achieve quantum resistance at the protocol level by 2029. Vitalik Buterin proposed four specific fixes, covering upgrades to validator signatures, data storage, account systems, and zero-knowledge proof systems. Ethereum's account abstraction mechanism also provides a natural technical foundation for this migration.
Nic Carter commented: "Ethereum people have already thought this through. Unless Bitcoin makes some changes, the ETH/BTC exchange rate will start reflecting this priority split."
⚠ Bitcoin: Governance dilemmas and disagreements
The situation in the Bitcoin community is much more complex. Security researcher Ethan Heilman and others proposed BIP-360, introducing a new output type "Pay-to-Merkle-Root" to reduce quantum attack risks. However, Heilman himself admits that this upgrade could take up to 7 years to implement. More worryingly, there are serious disagreements within the Bitcoin community about the quantum threat. Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes the quantum risk is greatly exaggerated, saying "no action is needed for decades." Nic Carter criticizes Bitcoin core developers for "denying, misleading, gatekeeping, burying their heads in the sand, saying 'the community will decide'," and then refusing to accept community feedback.
ARK Invest's research provides a stark figure: about 34.6% of Bitcoin supply (around 6.9 million BTC) faces quantum risk, including: approximately 5 million BTC (25%) exposed due to address reuse, about 1.7 million BTC (8.6%) stored in early P2PK addresses (public key directly exposed), and about 200k BTC (1%) stored in P2TR (Taproot) addresses.
🔬 Solana: A step ahead
Notably, Solana developers created a quantum-resistant vault (Winternitz Vault) on the Solana blockchain in early 2025, using hash-based signature systems, generating a new key for each transaction. While this is not yet a network-wide upgrade, it demonstrates technical feasibility.
It is also noteworthy that Google has set its post-quantum cryptography migration deadline for 2029, earlier than many industry predictions of Q-Day. This decision itself is a strong signal: the arrival of the quantum threat may be faster than expected. Chicago-based quantum computing company PsiQuantum has received a $1 billion investment from a BlackRock fund, aiming to build the world's first quantum computer with 1 million physical qubits by 2027.
Post-Quantum Cryptography: Solutions Already Exist
The good news is that post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is not an distant future technology; it already exists and is being standardized. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) officially released three post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024: ML-DSA (lattice-based digital signature), SLH-DSA (hash-based digital signature), ML-KEM (lattice-based key encapsulation mechanism). These algorithms are designed to resist quantum computer attacks while remaining efficient on classical computers.
ARK Invest explicitly states in its report that these standards "give us confidence in the capabilities of post-quantum cryptography." For blockchains, the main challenge in migration is not technical but governance — how to get all decentralized network participants to reach consensus and coordinate a system-wide cryptographic upgrade.
What should ordinary investors do?
In the face of the quantum threat, ordinary cryptocurrency holders are not powerless. Here are some practical suggestions:
1. Avoid address reuse: use a new address for each transaction to prevent public key exposure. This is currently the simplest and most effective safeguard.
2. Pay attention to projects' quantum resistance roadmap: when choosing investments, consider whether the project has a clear post-quantum cryptography upgrade plan. Ethereum has one, which is a positive signal.
3. Avoid using early P2PK addresses: if you hold Bitcoin stored in early addresses (starting with "1"), consider migrating to more secure address types.
4. Stay informed, no need to panic: the quantum threat is real, but Q-Day is not imminent. ARK Invest's research considers this a "long-term risk," and the crypto community has enough time to respond — as long as action is taken now.
Conclusion: A crisis and a watershed
Quantum computing's threat to cryptocurrencies is a slow-moving technological revolution. It won't suddenly erupt overnight but will gradually surge like a tide as quantum computing capabilities improve. Projects that start seriously addressing this threat now and actively promote post-quantum cryptography upgrades will gain a competitive edge in the future. Those that ignore or delay may face existential risks when the quantum era arrives.
As Nic Carter said: "The only thing that matters is how quickly blockchain developers realize they need to embed cryptographic agility into the network." The quantum era is not a question of "if" but "are we ready."
