$BTC Evening Viewpoint:

The Bitcoin triangle was broken through and surpassed the previous high of 76,000 to create a new high of 76,333, but it did not stay above 76,000; instead, after reaching the new high, it immediately turned around. Why did this happen? Because there is a large amount of bearish liquidity around 76,300 waiting to be cleared. Once this liquidity is cleared, the buying side does not follow up in time, causing the price to turn downward, as the Bitcoin has already completed its liquidation task. Before preparing to break upward, Bitcoin made a retest of the upper boundary of the triangle, as indicated by the red arrow. Confirming support at the triangle's upper boundary allowed it to rebound and break through the resistance at 75,367, reaching a new high of 76,333. Now, it depends on whether Bitcoin can stay above 75,367; if it can, it will attempt to challenge the high of 76,333 again. Breaking 76,333 would mean testing the resistance at 77,235. Of course, the prerequisite is that it must not fall below the support at 75,367. If it breaks below 75,367, it will retest the upper boundary of the triangle a second time. If the support at the triangle's upper boundary cannot hold, it will fall back inside the triangle to 73,454. Currently, the hourly candlestick in progress has not yet closed, and it’s uncertain what kind of candle it will form. If it closes as a doji, traders holding long positions should reduce their positions because a doji indicates a divergence between bulls and bears, and it’s uncertain who will ultimately win. If it closes as a bullish candle, long positions can be maintained but with proper cost protection. If it closes as a bearish candle, it’s best to exit all long positions, as a correction is likely.

Bitcoin dropped with volume below 75,267, then attempted a rebound but failed to recover, leading to a short-term pullback. Retesting the support at 74,533 with half a position on the left side; those without bottom-long positions should avoid chasing longs now and wait for a pullback to buy more. The hourly breakout above 76,044 indicates an upward target of 77,030-78,201. If it cannot stay above 76,044, the move is invalid. The 4-hour support is at 75,037, with a target of 74,538-73,500 downward.

On the daily chart, today marks the third day of breaking through the yellow trend line indicated by the red arrow. Over these three days, the daily candles have all closed above the yellow arrow and have broken out of the consolidation box. This suggests that the daily trend is about to turn upward, and it’s no longer just a rebound. The resistance Bitcoin faces on the daily level is at 76,308. If it can hold above this level, it can continue upward toward 77,066-79,077. As long as it doesn’t retest the box or fall back below the yellow trend line, there will be no deep correction. From a moving average perspective, Bitcoin has already broken through the EMA20 and EMA50 on the daily chart. The next resistance is the EMA200. Although the daily trend is bullish, it won’t rise forever; hourly and 4-hour charts will also see corrections. But remember, the overall daily trend is upward, and the smaller timeframes should be bought on dips, maintaining a bullish outlook.
$BTC