The latest developments and results of the US-Iran negotiations are currently the biggest variables affecting Bitcoin price trends.

According to CCTV News report on April 16, U.S. and Iranian negotiators made progress in the latest round of talks, gradually approaching a framework agreement to end the conflict.
With mediation from countries like Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, both sides are trying to bridge differences before the ceasefire agreement expires.
However, the White House clarified: reports about the U.S. officially requesting an extension of the ceasefire are false, and discussions about possibly holding face-to-face talks again are still ongoing.
The U.S. is optimistic about reaching an agreement, but several officials emphasized that, given the significant remaining differences, there is no guarantee of final success.
My judgment: Negotiation expectations are currently the main support for Bitcoin bulls.
As long as the negotiation window remains open, the market has a bottom line.
But since the agreement has not been finalized, Trump’s optimistic statements are more of a verbal positive signal.
Recently, Bitcoin prices have been fluctuating within a narrow range and performing relatively strongly, partly due to the positive outlook on US-Iran negotiations, and another reason is that buyer strength is strong—it's not retail investors but institutions.
First is MicroStrategy (Strategy): In April, it recorded an unrealized gain of 17,585 BTC, about $1.3 billion.
According to the latest disclosures, MicroStrategy gained 17,585 BTC in the first two weeks of April, worth approximately $1.31B.
Year-to-date BTC yield is 2.3%, and since the beginning of the year, it’s 5.6%.
The company currently holds 780,897 BTC, with a market value of about $58.1 billion at current prices.
The average purchase cost is about $75,577 per BTC, and the current price still hovers near the cost line.
More importantly, MicroStrategy’s STRC financing tool attracted over $1.76 billion in liquidity this week, which, if fully used for buying, could purchase about 24k more BTC.
This means as long as prices don’t collapse, MicroStrategy’s buying pressure will continue.
Second is BlackRock’s iBIT: On April 15, it saw a net inflow of $292 million in a single day.
According to SoSoValue data, on April 15, the total net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs was $186 million, with BlackRock’s iBIT accounting for $292 million.
J.P. Morgan’s MSBT had a net inflow of $19.32 million.
BlackRock’s Q1 2026 financial report shows that iBIT had a net inflow of about $935 million in that quarter, continuing to accumulate despite Bitcoin prices dropping over 25%, indicating that institutional allocation decisions are “path-independent.”
Conclusion: Buyer strength is highly concentrated, not natural market buying, but institutional support.
The high-probability turning point window on April 22 is approaching.
Regardless of how Bitcoin fluctuates within a narrow range, it’s worth just sitting back and watching the show—patiently awaiting the results of the US-Iran negotiations and the battle between bulls and bears on April 22.
If you can’t beat them, just watch from the sidelines, observing the clouds roll by outside the window.
— Mr. Little Dragon