Caught the coffee bounce on Wednesday - both arabica and robusta finally catching a bid after getting absolutely hammered. Arabica up nearly 3%, robusta up 1.4%, and honestly it looks like classic short covering after prices hit some seriously oversold levels. Been watching this selloff for a few weeks now, and the technicals just got too stretched. Arabica hit a 7.25-month low, robusta a 6-month low. Had to snap back at some point.

The bearish pressure has been relentless though. Brazil's crop forecast keeps getting bigger - Conab just reported 2026 production climbing 17% year-over-year to a record 66.2 million bags, and they've been getting solid rainfall too. Then you've got Vietnam absolutely flooding the market with robusta exports, up nearly 40% in January alone. Colombia's production is down sharply, but it's not enough to offset the supply surge elsewhere.

What's interesting is that ICE inventories actually recovered after hitting multi-month lows. That's weighing on prices too. But Brazil's own export numbers just came in weak - down 42% year-over-year in January. The USDA is projecting world production up 2% for 2025/26, though arabica specifically is supposed to decline while robusta keeps climbing. Global ending stocks are expected to tighten up a bit. So you've got this mix of record Brazilian crops and Vietnamese supply crushing prices, but some structural tightness underneath. Wednesday's bounce might just be traders covering shorts, but worth watching if this holds or if the fundamentals pull prices lower again. The Barchart commodity data has been tracking all these supply shifts pretty closely.