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Is more shorting more dangerous? This wave of BTC might not follow the script!
There is a classic reversal logic in the market:
When everyone is bearish, the risk is actually on the side of the shorts.
Bitcoin right now has a bit of this flavor.
Open interest has reached a five-week high, indicating many are betting on the direction; but at the same time, the probability of short squeeze is increasing.
What does this indicate?
The market is approaching an "emotional extreme."
Looking at other signals:
TRUMP, WLFI continue to decline, sentiment funds are retreating;
USDC issuance is increasing, liquidity is waiting off-chain;
Macroeconomic uncertainty is rising, but it hasn't exploded yet.
This creates a very interesting structure:
✔ Sentiment leaning bearish
✔ Funds not fully out yet
✔ Volatility is accumulating
What is most likely to happen in this situation?
Not a continuous decline, but a "sudden rebound."
Of course, this doesn't mean an immediate rise, but—
The market could break expectations at any time.
So, in terms of strategy:
✔ Don't chase shorts
✔ Wait for confirmation signals
✔ Keep flexible positions
One sentence summary:
The real danger is not a decline, but "thinking it will keep falling."#Gate广场四月发帖挑战