The expectation of military escalation offsets the positive outlook on troop withdrawal, and Trump's speech triggers a market turmoil.

ME News message: On April 2 (UTC+8), Trump delivered a rare prime-time national TV address from the White House. He tried to reassure Americans whose financial markets have been thrown into turmoil by the war and whose political approval ratings have taken a hit, claiming that the war with Iran is “very close” to being over. However, as Trump hinted that military action could escalate in the short term, international spot gold and silver prices plunged across the board. U.S. and Brent crude oil prices continued to climb. As of press time, spot gold is down more than $100 intraday, spot silver is down more than 3%, and both U.S. and Brent crude oil are up more than 5%. This speech highlights the immense pressure Trump faces: making the war aims clear to the public and finding an “exit route” for a conflict that has now entered its fifth week and is becoming increasingly difficult to manage. Notably, in some respects, this address looks more like a mobilization at the start of the war than a summary after one month. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for one-fifth of global seaborne oil transport, has been essentially blockaded since the outbreak of hostilities, becoming a major economic pain point. Although Trump still insists that energy shocks will ease after the war, the government has not yet clarified how it will persuade Iran to resume navigation through the strait. (Jin十) (Source: ODAILY)