The profit and loss of domestic live cattle fattening are basically balanced. It is expected that beef prices will continue to rise this year.

This article is republished from: Farmers Daily

Farmers Daily All-Media Reporter Zhao Wei

Recently, the National Meat Cattle and Yak Industry Technology System released the “2025 Meat Cattle and Yak Industry and Technology Development Report” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”). The Report shows that in 2025, the downward trend in the prices of major products in China’s meat cattle industry has been restrained: the price of domestically produced live cattle has stabilized and rebounded, and the income from fattening cattle farming covers farming costs; however, the issue of declining numbers of cows in the herd has not yet been fully reversed. Affected by factors such as herd-structure adjustments, climate change, and changes in the international market, the beef prices in major beef-producing countries all show an upward trend. Given the long production cycle of beef, beef prices are still expected to rise this year.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics and related industry monitoring, by the end of 2025 the nationwide cattle inventory will be 96.08 million head, down 4.4% year on year; the nationwide cattle slaughter volume will be 51.33 million head, up 0.7% year on year; and beef output will be 8.01 million tons, up 2.8% year on year. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, last year China’s beef imports featured the characteristics of “decreased quantity but increased price.” In 2025, the import volume of beef in mainland China was about 280.19 thousand tons, accounting for 34.98% of domestic beef, with import volume down 2.54% year on year; the import value was about 1058.65 billion yuan, up 8.69% year on year. Going forward, with adjustments to meat cattle capacity, technological development, and support from relevant policies, all segments of the meat cattle industry are expected to gradually enter a track of sustainable development.

In 2025, China’s meat cattle processing industry has shown structural changes driven by industrial adjustment and consumption upgrading. The total beef consumption for the year reached 1081.2 thousand tons, up 1.4% year on year. Retail prices have slowly rebounded from last year’s February low to 71.32 yuan/kg by the end of the year. Consumption forms and prices also show clear regional differences: in the Pearl River Delta, consumers prefer hot-fresh meat; in the Yangtze River Delta, the market is mainly mid-temperature meat handled by pre-chilling, and average prices at the two regions’ wholesale markets are higher. Pastoral and northern production areas are mainly dominated by hot-fresh meat and seasonal frozen meat, and prices are generally below 70 yuan/kg; while in the Central Plains region, the market is mainly made up of chilled-fresh meat and hot-fresh meat products, with prices in the middle.

At the same time, consumption upgrading is driving product forms toward more fine-grained development. Hot-fresh meat and mid-temperature meat account for more than half in the catering sector, and the level of standardization continues to improve. Fresh meat is moving toward more precise cutting and packaging upgrades. E-commerce and community group buying are driving growth in demand for small-packaged, precisely cut beef, which puts higher requirements on product appearance and freshness preservation. It is worth noting that new issues of “physical hazards” in food have emerged, and in some meat, “electronic chips” from the breeding stage are difficult to detect efficiently.

Currently, China has built a nationwide meat cattle industry market information monitoring system and has helped the industry. Focusing on common and regional issues in the meat cattle industry, the National Meat Cattle and Yak Industry Technology System initiated and established the National Meat Cattle and Yak Industry Technology System Department-Province Coordinated Collaboration Group. Around regional meat cattle technology needs, it carries out joint R&D, promotion, and demonstration. A large-scale, organized technology R&D model across the country is gradually becoming more complete.

The Report points out that currently, China’s meat cattle and yak industry is in a stage of adjustment for capacity recovery and structural optimization. Problems such as low overall industry efficiency and low profitability of cow breeding still constrain the healthy development of the industry. It is recommended to strengthen innovation in meat cattle germplasm resources and improve breeds, in order to break the dependence on imported core seed sources; use the whole industry chain approach to reduce costs and increase efficiency, based on consumer preferences for fresh meat, to build a differentiated supply chain and improve a dynamic balance mechanism between domestic production and imports; and promote upgrading of breeding technologies and green development, strengthen cattle disease prevention and control and technology R&D, and drive the industry toward sustained and healthy development.