International Observation | How much longer can Israel, engaged in a "seven-front" operation, hold on?

Source: Xinhua News Agency

Xinhua News Agency Jerusalem, March 31 (Reporter Wang Zhuolen, Pang Xinyi) The military strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran have entered their 32nd day on March 31, with clashes remaining intense and retaliatory. As the Iran-led regional anti-American and anti-Israel alliance “Arc of Resistance” gradually withdraws, Israel faces a “seven-front” combat situation, with forces “overwhelmed.” Meanwhile, the war has caused a surge in military spending, with high-value weapons consumption being substantial, placing a significant burden on the finances, and domestic anti-war voices growing louder. How long can Israel sustain its multi-front, high-intensity operations? How much longer can it last?

Forces “On the Verge of Collapse”

Currently, Israel is engaged in multi-front operations: continuously attacking Iran, with over 3,000 targets hit; launching fierce airstrikes in multiple areas in Lebanon and conducting ground operations in southern Lebanon; maintaining military actions in Gaza and the West Bank, almost daily launching attacks.

Multi-front operations are depleting Israeli military forces. Israeli military spokesperson Efraim Duvlin recently said that the Israeli force gap is about 15k troops. Michael Milstein, an expert at Tel Aviv University, believes Israel needs to replenish 25k to 30k soldiers to achieve its operational goals.

The force gap has sparked domestic concern. Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir recently stated that the Israeli military is under pressure and “on the verge of collapse”; opposition leader Yair Lapid of the “Future” party accused the government of forcing the overstretched military into multi-front operations with forces far from sufficient, risking a “security disaster.”

Since the outbreak of a new round of the Israel-Palestine conflict in October 2023, Israel has deployed large numbers of troops in Gaza and maintained combat deployments in Lebanon, Syria, and other directions. In late February this year, after military strikes against Iran, Israel was retaliated against by Iran and Iraqi Shia militias. Israel claims to face threats on “seven fronts” in Gaza, the West Bank, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

Currently, Israel is still preparing for long-term multi-front warfare. According to Israeli media reports, to ease the pressure of troop shortages, the government has approved raising the reserve call-up limit from 280k to 400k. However, some media reports indicate that since the new round of Israel-Palestine conflict, hundreds of thousands of reservists have been called up, many of whom have been repeatedly called 6 to 7 times, leading to ongoing fatigue among reserves. Whether raising the reserve call-up limit can alleviate the military force pressure remains to be seen.

High Cost of War

Analysts believe that the conflict has brought high costs to Israel.

First, military expenditure has surged. According to the “Land of Israel” newspaper, in the first 20 days of military strikes against Iran, Israel’s military spending reached about $6.4 billion. The “Israel Fintech News” quoted sources from the Israeli Defense Ministry, revealing that Israel’s daily military expenditure is about $480 million to $550 million, with total costs for a month of fighting possibly exceeding $12.9 billion. Recently, Israel approved the “highest-ever” defense budget, and analysts believe that massive military investments will put significant pressure on the country’s finances.

Second, weapons consumption is enormous. Recently, multiple Israeli media think tanks disclosed that in response to high-intensity missile attacks from Iran, some high-value interceptors in Israel’s stockpiles have been rapidly depleted. Among them, the stock of the “Arrow-3” intercept missile used to intercept long-range targets has been exhausted by about 80%. According to the “Land of Israel” newspaper, Israel’s defense industry’s intercept missile production lines are operating at full capacity.

The huge war costs have raised concerns about the economic outlook domestically. The Bank of Israel recently released a report indicating that if the conflict continues, this year’s economic growth rate will be between 3.3% and 3.8%, lower than the previous forecast of 5.2%. Chief economist Shmuel Abramson of the Ministry of Finance stated that the economic growth in the first quarter of this year is expected to decline by 9.5% year-on-year.

However, some experts believe that although the war has led to rising energy prices and impacts on certain industries, the economy has not yet shown systemic risks. Tel Aviv University researcher Harel Horrev said that the costs of war are indeed rising, “but the country is still functioning overall.”

Growing Anti-War Voices

Within Israel, the Netanyahu government is also facing pressure from public opinion.

Over the past month, air raid sirens and explosions have frequently sounded domestically, with a delayed resumption of work and school, and severe restrictions on travel due to closed airspace… Protests occur weekly in Tel Aviv and other cities, with many citizens taking to the streets to express dissatisfaction with the prolonged conflict.

A poll released by the Israel Democracy Institute on March 30 shows that anti-war voices within Israel are increasing, with the proportion of people “strongly supporting” continued operations dropping from 74% in early March to 50%, and those opposing the conflict rising from 4% to 11.5%.

Some analysts also point out that as long as casualties and losses are controllable, domestic support for the war remains. Additionally, with the Israeli parliamentary elections approaching in October, the Netanyahu government may use the prolongation of the conflict to rally political support and ease public pressure.

Experts believe that right-wing voters in Israel are more supportive of tough actions against Iran and Hezbollah, and ongoing conflict helps Netanyahu consolidate support within the right-wing camp, gaining more leverage in elections. Israeli political analyst Orli Noy said that the current conflict keeps “security as the top priority,” which to some extent helps strengthen Netanyahu’s political mobilization.

The cost of war is never borne by politicians but by ordinary citizens. Tel Aviv University Vice President Eyal Zisser said, “If the conflict continues indefinitely, the public will become more confused about the future of the country.”