Video | Market analysts: International oil prices are unlikely to return to lows in the short term

How will oil refinery repairs hinder regional economic recovery?

The United States and Iran announced a ceasefire and initiated two weeks of negotiations early on the 8th Beijing time (the evening of the 7th Eastern Time). Following the announcement, international oil prices significantly declined. However, market analysts say that even if the conflict is fully resolved and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, international oil prices are not expected to return to pre-conflict levels in the short term due to damaged refining capacity and disrupted supply chains.

Market analyst George Cori: Some refineries in the Middle East have been affected. If the war and conflicts end this week and the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens within the next two to three days, and if these refineries begin repairs immediately, we expect it will take about one to two months to restore normal production levels. Some refineries may take longer because they are more severely damaged, possibly taking several months to return to normal operation. Repairing these refineries will also incur additional costs, which will ultimately impact the regional economy. Therefore, this will not happen immediately, and we will not see prices drop sharply in the short term.