I’ve been monitoring the Iran-Israel tensions for days, and the crypto community is quite scared. Everyone is talking about the Strait of Hormuz as if it’s going to close tomorrow, but honestly, I think we’re overreacting a bit.

Let’s see what happened: on Saturday, Israel and the United States launched airstrikes against Iran, Tehran responded with ballistic missiles, and of course, the crypto market moved. Bitcoin dropped from $65,600 to $63,000 in a matter of hours. Oil futures on Hyperliquid rose more than 5%. It’s normal for people to panic.

But here’s the interesting part. Many users on X are predicting that oil will spike to $120-150 if Iran closes the Strait, which would cause a massive inflation shock and crash the crypto markets. It sounds terrifying, but several experts say that this probably won’t happen.

First, geography is on our side. The Strait is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, but here’s the key: although it’s divided between Iran and Oman, the main navigation routes are almost entirely in Omani waters. Why? Because the Iranian side is very shallow for large tankers. So technically, even if Iran wanted to block its part, ships could simply pass through the Omani side. It’s not that easy to close such a narrow strait.

Second, it’s not economically advantageous for Iran. The country produces 3.3 million barrels per day but only exports about half, almost all to China. If it closes the Strait, it would shoot itself in the foot because it depends on those exports. Plus, OPEC could quickly compensate for any disruption, and the United States alone is the world’s largest oil producer.

So, although a full-scale war could create widespread risk aversion and push Bitcoin below $60,000, the idea that the Strait will completely close and cause massive oil chaos seems more like speculation than reality. The crypto market tends to amplify catastrophic scenarios.

That said, Bitcoin remains the asset that best reflects geopolitical fear when traditional markets are closed. Right now, it’s at $73.14K after recovering, but tensions remain a factor to watch. If this escalates into a full-blown war, then we could see serious volatility.