Bitcoin experienced a slight rebound this week after surpassing $72,000. However, weak demand and investor exits could push the digital currency further downward.

Joao Widsen, founder of Alfractaal, pointed to a blockchain signal indicating that the asset may face a final decline in price before settling at the lowest point of the cycle.

The Final Round
His analysis, based on insights derived from Alpha AI, focuses on the relationship between the investor's price and the final sale price for long-term Bitcoin holders. According to the results, when the investor's price falls below the long-term Bitcoin holder's final sale price, it indicates a fundamental shift in market trends, especially regarding who determines the overall cost basis for Bitcoin holders.
This "crossover" signals a decline in confidence among new and more active market participants. The investor's price represents the average acquisition cost of actively traded coins, meaning it reflects short-term investor behavior. When this indicator drops below the long-term realized sale price, it essentially suggests that these participants are willing to accept prices lower than what long-term holders originally paid. These conditions typically appear after distribution phases, when demand begins to decline, and small-volume buyers start to withdraw from the market.