Pig prices continue to decline, and the central government's frozen pork storage will soon be launched.

Reporter Xin Yuan

According to a message released on the website of the Ministry of Commerce on Thursday, to maintain the stable operation of the pork market and better play the role of central reserves in regulation, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance are currently carrying out central reserve frozen pork procurement and storage work. Next, the Ministry of Commerce will continue to closely monitor pork market conditions, strengthen trend analysis, coordinate with relevant departments to carry out reserve-based market regulation, and ensure the stable operation of the market.

Behind the coordinated launch of the procurement and storage program by multiple departments is the recent sustained “slide” in pork prices.

Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that in the 4th week of March, the national average price of hogs was already down to 10.68 yuan per kilogram. That is a 3.3% month-on-month decrease and a 29.8% year-on-year decrease, hitting a new low in nearly 8 years.

For a long time, the hog-to-corn ratio (the ratio between the ex-farm price of hogs and the wholesale price of corn) has been the industry’s “barometer” of profits and losses. According to data from the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the 3rd week of March, the national hog-to-corn ratio had fallen to 4.40:1, setting a new low since 2019 and far below the primary early-warning line of 5:1.

The core contradiction behind the continued drop in hog prices is a supply-demand mismatch caused by excess capacity.

At the end of 2025, the number of nationwide stock of breeding sows stood at 39.61 million. In January 2026, it fell to 39.58 million. Although this year’s figures have declined, they are still above the upper limit of 39 million head for normal retention set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

From the demand side, the share of pork consumption has been gradually decreasing. The share of pork in meat consumption fell from 62.1% in 2018 to 57.9% in 2025.

In recent days, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued the “Notice on Strengthening Cooperation to Promote High-Quality Development of Swine Insurance,” further promoting steady production and adequate supply in the hog industry, safeguarding the lawful interests of pig-breeding households and enterprises, and supporting high-quality development of swine insurance.

Looking ahead to the trend of hog prices, Dongxing Securities, in its research report, analyzed that the short-term oversupply trend in the hog breeding industry will continue in the near term, and hog prices are expected to remain under pressure in the first half of 2026. However, as the effect of capacity reduction gradually becomes apparent, supply pressure in the second half of 2026 will ease to some extent.

In a research report, Hualian Futures pointed out that the industry is currently in a critical period of a key game between short-term price pressure and long-term capacity clearing. Although policy guidance and the industry’s deeply loss-making situation jointly drive capacity reduction, the progress of capacity reduction has remained relatively slow. The number of breeding sows and the base of piglet supply are still at a relatively high level. The trend of continuous growth in commercial hog supply is expected to continue into the first half of 2026, and long-term supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally ease.

Hualian Futures also noted that, under the combined impact of multiple factors—including a sluggish economic environment, changes in traditional consumption habits, and shocks from substitutes such as poultry meat—domestic total pork consumption has shown a steady downward trend, and the short-term difficulty of changing the national hog market pattern of supply exceeding demand.

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