I just noticed something that probably many are not seeing clearly in the markets. As the situation with Iran intensifies, U.S. Treasury yields are rising significantly, and this could be the key factor that determines not only the course of the conflict but also how Bitcoin and other risk assets move in the coming weeks.

The interesting thing is that there is a little-known indicator that big players are monitoring: the swap spread of the 10-year Treasury bond. According to ING analysts, when this spread exceeds 60 basis points, it begins to cause real problems for government financing. It is currently just below 50 basis points, but here’s the important part: if it spikes to 60, we would be talking about higher borrowing costs for the U.S., which in turn affects the entire economy and financial markets.

But there is another level also on the radar. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen about 45 basis points since the war began, reaching 4.37%. The critical range is between 4.5% and 4.6%, which is exactly where Trump has previously retreated. Last April, when the yield surpassed 4.50%, Trump began hinting at a pause on tariffs. At 4.60%, he officially implemented a 90-day pause. The pattern is clear: when the bond market pressures, the administration feels the pressure.

Now, if the yield breaks toward 5%, we would be in truly dangerous territory. Several analysts, including people like Arthur Hayes, have pointed out that a 5% level on the 10-year yield could trigger a mini financial crisis. And this is where Bitcoin comes in.

When that happens, we’ll probably see an initial drop in BTC as a reflex reaction to risk. But here’s the twist: if the Fed is forced to intervene with liquidity injections, buyers could quickly re-engage. It’s the classic crisis-intervention-recovery pattern. Other risk assets, from tokens like notcoin to stocks, would follow similar dynamics.

The point is that Bitcoin and crypto traders in general need to stay alert to these bond market indicators. It’s not just economic theory; these numbers are shaping policy decisions in real time. If the Treasury pushes hard enough, the war could de-escalate. If the Fed intervenes, liquidity might flow back into risk assets. Treasury yields are not just numbers for economists; they are the thermometer of risk appetite in the markets. BTC is currently trading around 72.62K, but these movements in the Treasury could be what define the next major move.