CPI directly determines the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts, which is the primary fundamental factor affecting Bitcoin's current trend, forming a dual drive with Middle Eastern geopolitical developments:

• Inflation > expectations → Delay in rate cuts, strengthening of the dollar → Negative for BTC, leading to a decline

• Inflation < expectations → Early rate cuts, weakening of the dollar → Positive for BTC, leading to an increase

• Inflation and expectations are roughly in line → Market oscillates with news realization

• Seasonally unadjusted CPI annual rate (highest weight of 5 stars): previous value 2.4%, market expectation 3.3%
Expectations are significantly higher than previous, indicating the market is pricing in a rebound in inflation early; if the announced value > 3.3%, it is strongly bearish; if < 2.4%, it is strongly bullish.

• Seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate: previous value 0.3%, expectation 0.9%
Monthly price change, with expectations of a significant rebound month-over-month, exceeding expectations will suppress crypto prices.

• Core CPI (excluding energy and food, which the Fed closely monitors): previous 0.2% monthly / 2.5% annual, expectation 0.3% monthly / 2.7% annual
The stronger the sticky core inflation, the harder it is to implement rate cuts, exerting greater pressure on BTC.