#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 4.10 Forex, Gold, Crude Oil Analysis Strategies

【US Dollar Index】  The US dollar index generally remained under pressure yesterday, weakly oscillating around 99, testing the 98.6 level again during the session, with a bearish candle on the daily chart. From the daily structure, under the influence of the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, the downward pressure from Wednesday’s large bearish candle is present but limited. In the short term, the market is unlikely to determine the next trend direction clearly when news is uncertain. Tonight’s US CPI data will be released, adding more risk factors to the uncertain market.  
Within the day, the US dollar index is expected to continue consolidating and correcting. Technical resistance is mainly focused around the 5-day moving average near 99.3, while support levels are still around 98.6/5, with particular attention to the support at 98 for potential fill-in. The specific direction will depend on the US-Iran situation and tonight’s US CPI data for guidance. Therefore, non-USD currencies are also on hold for now, with adjustments based on fundamental developments during the evening session.

【Gold】  Yesterday, gold fluctuated narrowly above the 5-day moving average of 4700, and in the evening, due to market uncertainty about US-Iran negotiations and a decline in the dollar, a short-term rebound in gold occurred. After testing the high near 4800, it retraced, and the daily chart closed with a small bullish candle.  
From the daily structure, gold performed relatively calmly yesterday, not significantly affected by the previous day’s high-to-low bearish candle. Although it held above the 5-day moving average, there was limited room for upward expansion. This reflects the current cautious attitude of the market toward unpredictable news. Future price movements will still rely heavily on news, with technical analysis serving only as a short-term reference.
Today’s gold is expected to remain volatile, with support around the 5-day moving average near 4720. If it breaks below, the 10- and 20-day moving averages at 4670 can serve as buffers. If these are also broken, gold will return to a weak downward trend. On the upside, attention remains on the 4800 resistance. If geopolitical tensions ease and the dollar declines again, gold may rise further, but space and time are limited. Resistance levels to watch are around 4840-50 and 4900.  
Looking at the hourly chart, gold may continue to oscillate within the day. If the hourly structure indicates a “head and shoulders top” pattern, the bearish outlook will intensify. Whether this pattern materializes depends on news triggers. Tonight’s US CPI data, combined with the potential for oil prices to surge due to US-Iran tensions, could heighten inflation concerns and increase expectations for Fed rate hikes, which might support gold’s rise.
The uncertain US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and rising inflation fears complicate the short-term outlook for gold, making it difficult to determine a clear direction. It’s advisable to stay on the sidelines today, awaiting clearer news tonight to adjust strategies accordingly.  
① For today, a conservative approach is to stay on hold, adjusting strategies after the US CPI release and news on US-Iran negotiations.  
② Technical reference suggests trying to short on rebounds near 4800, with a tight stop-loss of 10 points, targeting 4760-50 for partial profit-taking or to protect capital. Remaining positions can be held if retracing below 4700, as this supports a medium-term bearish view.  
③ Short-term long positions are not recommended today; if tonight’s CPI data is positive for gold, strategies will be adjusted based on real-time market reactions.

【Crude Oil】  Yesterday, WTI crude oil rebounded amid uncertainties in US-Iran negotiations, with the high testing the expected 10-day moving average around 102-103. However, news of Israel’s intention to negotiate with Lebanon triggered a short-term decline, pushing prices down to around 95, retracing some of the gains. Later in the night, the market rebounded slightly, and the daily candle closed with a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow.  
From yesterday’s movement, it’s clear that the market remains highly sensitive to news. Concerns about the US-Iran situation not fully easing dominate, causing oscillations: a quick drop on negative news followed by a rebound. Based on the hourly chart, short-term oil prices may also face a tricky oscillation today. Resistance levels are around 101, with a break above targeting 103.0-105, while support is around 97-96. The market currently lacks a clear direction and will depend on news developments. The overall rhythm remains oscillation with rebounds in the absence of news and quick drops on negative headlines.  
Operationally, it’s advisable to remain cautious and on hold today, waiting for developments in US-Iran negotiations before making adjustments. Aggressive traders can consider short-term trades within the 103-101-96 range, but with very light positions and caution against sudden news risks.