GTC Zehui Capital: Temporary switch to gold attributes, driven by de-dollarization for a long-term bull market

On March 31, in 2026, when the global financial game enters deep waters, the risk-hedging logic of traditional assets is undergoing an unprecedented paradigm shift. GTC Zehui Capital believes that the recent sharp pullback in gold prices amid the escalation of external conflicts in fact reveals that gold is, at this stage, exhibiting the characteristics of a risk asset. This counterintuitive move is not a declaration that gold’s safe-haven status is coming to an end, but a reflection of changes in the market’s positioning of capital— as a large influx of retail funds and leveraged positions squeezes liquidity, forced liquidations have become the core catalyst behind the 15% drop in gold prices in March.

From the perspective of macro pricing power, the traditional interest-rate framework can no longer fully explain the current market. GTC Zehui Capital said that since 2022, the classic negative correlation between gold and the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield has significantly weakened. Even if U.S. Treasury yields quickly retreat from 4.30% to 4.00%, gold prices do not show a synchronous retaliatory rebound, indicating that geopolitical risk premia and central bank reserve demand have become more critical pricing factors than interest rates. Data shows that since 2022, global central banks’ pace of gold purchases has risen to 2.5 times, or even 3 times, the average of the past decade. This sovereign-level increase in holdings is precisely to hedge against excessive exposure to U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

Looking ahead, short-term pains will not shake gold’s position as a global strategic asset. GTC Zehui Capital believes that although “volatility” will run through all of 2026, the irreversible “de-dollarization” trend across the world will provide gold with a long-term, solid bottom support. Even if gold goes from a parabolic rise at the beginning of the year into a technical correction, on the dimension of real value after inflation adjustment, gold is still in the process of making history. Investors should not be misled by short-term liquidity shocks; at a time when there are concerns about reckless expansion of fiscal policy and the potential for debt monetization, gold’s strategic value as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation is at a multi-decade high.

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Editor: Chen Ping