Goldman Sachs lowers its 2026 copper price forecast, expecting the market surplus to expand.

MaticHoleFiller · 2026-04-10T08:37:33+00:00

Goldman Sachs expects a 490k-ton surplus in the global copper market by 2026, lowering the copper price forecast to $12,650, mainly due to the impact of a slowing global economy on demand. Although demand remains acceptable, the weak outlook will lead to a significant increase in inventories. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate, but in the long term, due to supply bottlenecks and increased investment, prices could rise to $15,000 by 2035.

MaticHoleFiller

2026-04-10 08:37:33

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Goldman Sachs stated on Monday that a larger surplus in the global copper market is expected by 2026, and has lowered its copper price forecast, citing a slowdown in global economic growth driven by energy factors leading to weak demand growth.

The bank said that currently, a surplus of 490k tons of refined copper is expected in 2026, up from the previous estimate of 380k tons, and has lowered the average copper price forecast for 2026 from $12,850 per ton to $12,650.

Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 global refined copper demand growth outlook from 2.0% down to 1.6%, after its economists previously estimated that rising energy prices could reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points.

The bank stated that copper demand remains more resilient than other metals, reflecting its increasing strategic and structural importance.

Maintaining the same production assumptions, weak demand prospects will lead to a significant increase in inventories, with markets outside the U.S. approaching supply-demand balance, prompting a nearly 2% year-over-year decrease in copper prices.

In the short term, Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to remain volatile as markets assess the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on economic growth.

Assuming energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz resumes in mid-April and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates twice later this year, the bank forecasts that copper prices will average $12,700 in the second quarter of 2026, then fall back to a reasonable value of $12,000 in the second half.

Goldman Sachs stated that if disruptions to energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz persist, energy prices will rise further and economic growth will be further hindered, with risks skewed to the downside.

Looking beyond 2026–27, Goldman Sachs maintains its view that copper prices could rise to $15,000 by 2035, driven by supply bottlenecks and accelerated demand from electrification and grid investments.

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