Fidelity Digital Assets has proposed that the four-year Bitcoin cycle has ended, suggesting that market structure has changed and cyclical 80% retracements may no longer occur. The report estimates that by October 2025, Bitcoin's market capitalization will surpass $2.5 trillion, with deeper liquidity and more stable volatility; even if the price reaches 📈126k USD, volatility will be compressed. Key factors include increased scale (market cap approximately twice the 2021 peak) and changes in holding structure: 49 publicly listed companies hold over 10⁵ BTC (<5% of circulating supply), and ETF holdings reach 1.3 million coins, about 6.4% of circulating supply. On-chain indicators show that MVRV remains around 2x, with profit double windows lasting ≥95%. Risk indicators, such as profit/volatility ratio, have stayed above 0.015 since the end of 2023, indicating a more stable market. If this trend continues, BTC will experience a slower, more structured price increase in the future, lacking sudden peaks and sharp retracements.