The Bull Case For Macy’s (M) Could Change Following Bearish Options Activity Ahead Of Earnings - Learn Why

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 4:10 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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In recent days, Macy’s has seen heavy bearish options activity, insider selling, and rising investor caution ahead of its March 5 earnings report, amid concerns about declining revenue, profitability, and financial stress.

At the same time, Macy’s is pushing ahead with its “Bold New Chapter” plan and merchandising overhaul, including a new senior hire to expand higher-end women’s assortments, underscoring the tension between operational repositioning and mounting market skepticism.

With bearish options positioning intensifying ahead of earnings, we’ll explore how this caution interacts with Macy’s existing investment narrative and risks.

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Macy’s Investment Narrative Recap

To own Macy’s today, you need to believe its “Bold New Chapter” can offset pressure from weaker revenue, thin margins, and a highly competitive retail backdrop. The key near term catalyst is the March 5 earnings report, which arrives as options markets turn sharply bearish and insider selling highlights concern about financial stress. This negative sentiment is material, because it raises the stakes around any earnings miss or cautious outlook.

The most relevant recent development is the surge in bearish options positioning, with the Put/Call ratio spiking to 8.8 and heavy volume in late February puts. That activity sits uncomfortably beside plans to upgrade assortments and expand higher end offerings, including the hire of Dayna Ziegler from Saks Global, and could amplify market reaction to any signs that the merchandising overhaul is not yet translating into healthier profitability.

Yet beneath the merchandising refresh, investors should be aware that…

Read the full narrative on Macy’s (it’s free!)

Macy’s narrative projects $18.5 billion revenue and $663.0 million earnings by 2028. This assumes revenues will decline by 6.5% per year and requires an earnings increase of about $169 million from $494.0 million today.

Uncover how Macy’s forecasts yield a $21.90 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

M 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Some of the most optimistic analysts were assuming revenue around US$20.2 billion and earnings near US$616 million by 2028, but the latest bearish options, insider selling, and e-commerce risks show how differently you and others might view Macy’s path and why those projections may evolve from here.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Macy’s - why the stock might be worth 41% less than the current price!

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The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

A great starting point for your Macy's research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Our free Macy's research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Macy's overall financial health at a glance.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include M.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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