Last year, I saw many opinions suggesting that the crypto and blockchain space may not need BTC in the future. The main arguments were threefold:

- Currently, blockchain has become a channel for major institutions to issue USD stablecoins
- Recently, precious metals, commodities, US stocks, and other RWA have been on-chain, so blockchain no longer lacks quality assets
- The impact of AI and computing power on the future of blockchain
I agree with these viewpoints, and before the New Year, I also discussed these issues with many friends when I was in HK.
However, today I want to share a personal perspective. This theory might sound like a chicken-and-egg dilemma—whether one came first or the other. Regardless of whether it’s right or wrong, just keep reading. Disagreements are the fastest way to sharpen your thinking:
1⃣ All investable assets in this world are essentially just a form of trading.
2⃣ Since it’s trading, there will be people trying to profit through market manipulation.
3⃣ To manipulate the market, you need to tell a story; sometimes, you even have to actually execute actions or leverage certain events to move the market.
4⃣ When the distribution of chips (capital) is unfavorable for manipulation, switch to another asset, tell a different story, and meanwhile accumulate chips in other assets. This creates different cycles for different assets.
5⃣ High-quality assets, due to strong consensus, are easier to profit from during market manipulation, which can be understood as an attention economy.
Let’s apply this logic to gold. To boost gold prices, stories like rate cuts, geopolitical risks, industrial demand, or even wars are all brought to the table. If you say it’s not true and that these factors are the real reasons behind gold’s rise, how do you explain the recent days when gold fluctuated by hundreds of dollars daily? Following the trend and manipulating the market is the way for big players to maximize profits.
Can BTC fit into this framework?
How did this wave of BTC price increases happen? Bitcoin halving, institutional entry, pro-cryptocurrency policies from Trump’s 2024 election victory, and a series of positive factors stacked step by step. But now, the market isn’t looking great. I believe we are at the mid-to-late stage of harvesting, and a bear market consolidation phase is likely ahead, which could last a while. As for what happens next, we’ll see if my logic holds up.
Although I don’t want to be bearish or short my own career, recent market performance has been disappointing. If it’s going to fall, then just let it fall happily. I’m waiting for cheaper BTC, and by the way, the big drop in the crypto market is also good for my wife’s 100kg of silver spot holdings (laughs).