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🕵️ Reserve Risk is rolling over.
The combined Reserve Risk + VOCDD/MVOCDD model is flashing another downturn — signaling weakening alignment between price and long-term holder conviction.
Since 2024, this indicator has triggered four sell signals. Every time, price moved lower.
This setup typically appears when: • Reserve Risk stays elevated
• Older coins start moving (VOCDD/MVOCDD rising)
• Long-term holders begin distributing
Historically, this confluence precedes corrective moves.
Indicators aren’t narratives — they reflect on-chain probabilities.
Right now, conviction vs. activity is the key relationship to watch.