Standard Chartered Bank's Major Report: Surge in Stablecoin Demand Could Reshape the U.S. Treasury Market Structure

In recent years, the integration of digital assets with traditional finance has entered an unprecedentedly deep phase. Recently, the historic British multinational banking giant Standard Chartered released a forward-looking research report, pointing out that as the stablecoin market continues to expand, its demand for U.S. government bonds—especially short-term T-bills—will surge. This trend could not only alter the issuance structure of U.S. debt but may also lead the U.S. Treasury to suspend the issuance of 30-year long-term bonds within the next three years. This article provides an in-depth analysis of this potential transformation that could reshape the global financial landscape.

Rise of Stablecoins: From Market Side Player to Major Buyer of U.S. Debt

Standard Chartered’s analyst team, including Global Digital Asset Research Head Geoff Kendrick, notes that stablecoin issuers typically allocate large reserves into highly liquid short-term U.S. Treasuries to ensure asset stability and liquidity. As adoption of digital currencies increases, this demand is shifting from quantitative growth to qualitative change.

According to Standard Chartered’s latest forecast, by the end of 2028, the total market cap of global stablecoins could grow from approximately $304 billion to $2 trillion. This explosive growth would generate an additional demand of about $800 billion to $1 trillion for U.S. government bonds. When factoring in the Federal Reserve’s Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) and the replacement needs for maturing Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), the total demand for short-term U.S. Treasuries could reach $2.2 trillion in the coming years.

Standard Chartered’s stablecoin market cap forecast, source: Standard Chartered

“Century Shift” in U.S. Debt Issuance Structure: 30-Year Bonds May Take a Backseat

Such a massive demand for short-term debt presents a “historic opportunity” for the U.S. Treasury to adjust its debt structure. The report proposes a bold hypothesis: U.S. debt issuers might leverage the excess demand driven by stablecoins to significantly increase short-term T-bill issuance while reducing or even suspending long-term bond issuance.

The analysis suggests that within the next three years, the market could see an excess demand of about $900 billion for short-term Treasuries. To balance this supply and demand and control long-term financing costs, the U.S. Treasury would only need to increase the proportion of T-bills in total debt by 2.5%, releasing an equivalent amount of supply. In an extreme scenario, under current auction scales, the U.S. Treasury could “justifiably” suspend all 30-year bond issuances, potentially for up to three years.

This is not unprecedented. The U.S. temporarily suspended 30-year bond auctions from 2002 to 2006, but that was based on a fiscal surplus environment. Standard Chartered warns that, given the current high federal deficit levels (around 5-6% of GDP), a renewed suspension of long-term debt issuance could have more complex long-term effects on the yield curve.

Emerging Markets: The Core Driver of U.S. Debt Demand

It is noteworthy that Standard Chartered emphasizes that this round of increased U.S. debt demand driven by stablecoins is primarily fueled by emerging markets, not developed economies.

The report estimates that by 2028, about two-thirds of stablecoin growth will originate from emerging markets. This means that large amounts of capital, which might otherwise be held in local banking systems or informal economies, will flow indirectly into the U.S. debt market through stablecoin purchases. This represents a “net new” capital inflow rather than a simple reallocation of internal funds within developed markets. It further highlights the role of stablecoins as a bridge connecting emerging market capital to dollar assets, reinforcing the dollar’s foundational position in the global financial system.

Regulatory Progress: The GENUIS Act Brings Policy Momentum

The growing influence of stablecoins on the U.S. debt market is closely linked to regulatory clarity. The U.S. GENUIS Act, passed in July 2025, establishes federal standards for stablecoin issuers, requiring them to hold high-quality, highly liquid reserve assets, with short-term U.S. Treasuries being a core component.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently stated that the GENUIS Act could become “an important tool for financing the U.S. government.” This indicates that policymakers are keenly aware of stablecoins’ potential value in debt management. Although the growth of the stablecoin market has temporarily slowed due to market cycles and regulatory implementation, Standard Chartered believes this is merely cyclical rather than structural.

Market Impact and Risks: Bull Flattening of the Yield Curve

For market participants, this structural shift will directly impact the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Standard Chartered’s analysis suggests that if large funds flow into the short end while long-term supply diminishes, the yield curve will experience “bull flattening,” with long-term rates falling faster than short-term rates.

However, in the long run, this approach also carries risks. Over-reliance on short-term instruments for financing could increase rollover risk and make the Treasury more vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations. Additionally, if concerns about fiscal deficits intensify, the term premium on long-term bonds could rise instead of fall, pushing up long-term borrowing costs.

Latest Cryptocurrency Market Overview

As the macro financial landscape quietly evolves, the crypto market itself is experiencing a rational price correction. As of February 24, 2026, according to Gate.io data, Bitcoin (BTC) has decreased by 1.78% over the past 24 hours, currently trading at $63,842.1. Its 24-hour trading volume is $1.12 billion. Although it has retreated from its all-time high of $126,080, Bitcoin remains the dominant market leader, with a market cap of $1.31 trillion and a market share of 55.37%.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $1,838.95, down 1.58% over the past 24 hours. Despite a generally neutral or slightly bearish short-term sentiment, stablecoins continue to serve as a crucial link between traditional finance and the crypto world. Their reserve expansion logic remains unchanged and is increasingly recognized for its strategic importance at the macro level.

Summary

Standard Chartered’s report reveals a new future landscape: stablecoins are no longer niche tools in the crypto world but are becoming the “hidden hand” influencing the issuance pattern of the world’s most core asset—U.S. government debt. For investors, understanding this trend is essential not only for grasping the intrinsic value of stablecoins but also for gaining macro insights into the future flow of global capital. At Gate, we will continue to monitor this transformation and bring you the latest, most in-depth industry analysis.