#BTC This time, the U.S. January non-farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, which is generally bearish for Bitcoin and short-term pressure. The core logic is: strong employment → cooling of rate hike expectations → strengthening of U.S. Treasury yields/USD → increased opportunity cost for Bitcoin, capital outflows.

1. Core Transmission Path (Understand in One Sentence)

- Non-farm payrolls significantly surpass expectations (130,000 vs. about 70,000 expected) + unemployment rate slightly drops to 4.3% → economic resilience exceeds expectations
- Market delays/reduces the Fed's rate cut expectations for 2026 (especially the probability of a June cut decreases)
- 2-year U.S. Treasury yield surges to 3.55% (new weekly high), dollar strengthens
- Bitcoin is a high-risk, zero-yield asset: increased opportunity cost of holding, capital prefers to flow back into U.S. Treasuries/USD
- Result: BTC is more likely to fall short-term, difficult to rise, volatility amplifies, leveraged longs are prone to liquidation

2. Specific Impact on BTC

- 📉 Short-term bearish (1–3 days)
- After data release, rapid drop or spike likely, triggering leveraged long liquidations
- Increased outflow pressure from spot ETF funds (recently continuous net outflows)
- Altcoins usually fall more than BTC, risk aversion intensifies
- ⏳ Medium-term suppression (1–4 weeks)
- Expectations of “higher for longer” for the Fed strengthen
- U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate at high levels, continuously suppressing risk asset valuations
- Bitcoin’s rebound potential is limited, hard to break out of a trend upward
- 🧩 Long-term impact is limited
- Non-farm payrolls are monthly data, do not change the Fed’s main rate cut direction (only delay the pace)
- If subsequent inflation falls and employment weakens, rate cut expectations will return

3. Key Market Variables (Focus on)

1. U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: >3.5% → continuous suppression of BTC; falling below 3.3% → pressure eases
2. CME FedWatch: June rate cut probability (currently about 50%) → lower is more bearish
3. Next Tuesday’s CPI: if inflation exceeds expectations, bearish impact doubles; if inflation falls back, partial hedge
4. Key BTC price levels: current support at 66,000–67,000; breaking below may accelerate downward; resistance at 70,000–71,000

4. Trading Tips

- Short-term: bearish bias, mainly rebounding to short, strictly control stop-loss
- Medium-term: wait-and-see/ light positions, confirm policy pace with CPI and Fed speeches
- Leverage: reduce positions, avoid high leverage during sensitive data periods