2026-01-22 14:00:35

Dear crypto friends, Happy New Year.

This is my first post at Gate Square. As I was typing, it was already late, and looking out the window, I suddenly thought—this market’s current state is a bit like the moment at dusk and dawn when you can’t tell exactly what time it is. We are now standing here, one foot on the expectations of a bull market, and the other in the shadow of a bear market. The road ahead is steep, and behind us is a four-year cycle. The four-year bull-bear cycle feels like a curse to many, suffocating and overwhelming.

Just a few weeks into 2026, I think it’s time to have a good talk about this year’s market trends.

**Global Central Banks Are Turning the Water Tap On**

Regarding the trend in 2026, I still hold some expectations. This isn’t some mystical K-line prediction, but based on a more solid foundation: major global central banks are all signaling the same thing—liquidity expansion.

Looking at the US. The Federal Reserve’s three-year quantitative tightening (QT) officially ended in October 2025. Although there are still voices within, the policy shift is now irreversible. Meanwhile, our central bank has been more agile. Entering 2026, it launched 900 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase agreements, net injecting 300 billion yuan of liquidity into the market. This marks the eighth consecutive month of net liquidity injection through such tools. The tone of the Central Economic Work Conference is also clear: maintaining a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2026.

From the US to China, from central banks to liquidity, a clear story is unfolding: the world has entered a new liquidity expansion cycle.

What does this mean for holders of assets? Liquidity easing usually spills over into risk assets, and cryptocurrencies, as the most liquidity-sensitive among risk assets, tend to be the first to attract capital. Historical experience shows that there is indeed some correlation between central bank liquidity injections and rising coin prices. From late 2024 to early 2025, the market’s expectations of liquidity release by various central banks already drove a wave of gains in mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The question is, how far will this liquidity expansion go? How long will it last? These questions still hang over us. But one thing is certain: in an environment of expanding liquidity, assets and consensus tend to attract more capital.

So my attitude this year is: be cautious, but not pessimistic. Watching central bank actions and the Federal Reserve’s shift, at least we don’t have to worry about a sudden drying up of global liquidity. In this big context, although the market is still groping in the fog, there is at least a sense of direction.

BTC-4.42%

ETH-4.69%

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RiddleMaster

· 01-25 13:14

It's indeed hard to judge between dusk and dawn, but easing liquidity is truly the underlying logic, unlike metaphysics. When the central bank takes action, the market reacts; history tends to repeat itself. In times of liquidity easing, we should identify which coins truly have consensus and avoid blindly following the trend. I'm all for the attitude of not being overly pessimistic, but you must safeguard your positions. The Federal Reserve has shifted, and central banks are also easing; with this combination of moves, who dares say there's no chance in 2026?

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PortfolioAlert

· 01-24 22:18

The phrase at the boundary between dusk and dawn is truly stunning, can't quite figure out this market When the central bank injects liquidity, then let's get on board, after all, that's what history has taught us 900 billion reverse repurchase sounds huge, but can it really last until the end of 2026? It's okay not to be pessimistic, just don't be too optimistic, the bear market shadow is still quite heavy Wait, can the Federal Reserve really stick to its liquidity injections? Feels like they might change their stance at any time Having consensus and assets sounds good, but it's just talk that's easy to say Liquidity overflow into risk assets, reminds me of the friend who went bankrupt last time Be cautious, not pessimistic—that's the survival rule in the crypto world, learned it well

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AirdropHunter

· 01-24 11:04

At the boundary between dusk and dawn, it's a bit bleak, metaphorically it's incredible. The central bank's recent moves are indeed quite aggressive, with a net injection of 300 billion, which is no small amount. I can follow this logic: liquidity easing → risk assets → rising coin prices, a repeat of history. I'm just worried that this might be another false alarm, and we'll get caught again. But honestly, at least having a sense of direction is better than blindly guessing. I appreciate this attitude. Be vigilant but not pessimistic—that's a good way to put it. Looking at the Fed and central bank's coordination, it really feels like this year won't be too tough. The real question remains: when will the liquidity dry up? That's the key. Assets with consensus... so we still need to carefully select targets. The darkest hour is always before dawn. Can we hold on until dawn this time?

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WalletDetective

· 01-22 14:30

This metaphor of dusk and dawn is perfect, it exactly describes how it feels now. The central bank's liquidity injection this time is indeed different, with net injections for 8 consecutive months, so there's still confidence. But as always, liquidity doesn't necessarily flow into the crypto space; it depends on market sentiment. The road ahead is steep, hold tight to your chips. Be cautious but not pessimistic; this is the way of seasoned crypto veterans.

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SmartContractPlumber

· 01-22 14:29

I've heard this logic of the central bank flooding the market too many times. Every time, they say liquidity will spill over into risk assets. But what’s the result? Among the projects that have crashed in the crypto space over the past few years, how many were due to the underlying smart contract permissions being essentially useless, drained by a single reentrancy vulnerability exploited by hackers? It’s not something that can be saved by just flooding the market. That said, if you're really going to bet on this wave, at least make sure what you're buying has undergone proper auditing—don't be fooled.

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Degen4Breakfast

· 01-22 14:17

The central bank's liquidity injection this time is indeed interesting; history always repeats itself. Liquidity spilling over into risk assets, let's just wait to be chased after, haha. That line between dusk and dawn is perfect; right now, that's the feeling. Rather than being pessimistic, it's better to be optimistic; after all, the liquidity cycle is right there. The crypto cycle repeats every four years; will this time break the curse? The Fed's pivot + central bank net injections, double good news, brother. Be cautious but not pessimistic; I like this attitude, just play it like that.

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ShibaOnTheRun

· 01-22 14:17

Dusk and dawn are truly amazing, I really understand this feeling The central bank's recent 900 billion is indeed fierce, with continuous net injections for 8 months... Liquidity is so ample, if you don't seize the opportunity to jump on board, you'll regret it I appreciate the cautious but not pessimistic attitude, it's better than shouting about collapse every day Historical experience is right there, during liquidity infusion cycles, coins have their chances One foot in a bull market, one foot in a bear market, let's dance on the edge of the knife Wait, how far can this wave go? It still feels a bit uncertain Reasonable allocation, don't go all in, this is the correct way to approach 2026 Watch the Fed and central banks' rhythm, at least you don't have to fear sudden liquidity disappearance Market confusion is normal, but the overall direction is already very clear Your analysis is indeed stable, unlike some who sell anxiety every day

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RunWhenCut

· 01-22 14:16

The central bank injecting liquidity sounds like a positive signal. I understand the feeling between dusk and dawn, it's that kind of uncertainty about whether the market will go up or down next. The liquidity spillover into the crypto space makes sense; history has indeed played out this way. But honestly, 900 billion yuan in reverse repos sounds impressive, but how much of a share it can really carve out in the crypto world depends on the market sentiment. Instead of guessing the central bank's intentions, it's more reliable to watch BTC's reaction. This article is a bit poetic, but I buy the logic. Just stay alert and avoid being overly pessimistic. Happy New Year everyone, another year of betting and strategizing. The so-called "liquidity injection cycle" is just a gamble on whether liquidity will stay abundant or not.

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AirdropF5Bro

· 01-22 14:02

The central bank's liquidity injection this time, I am optimistic about it. The historical experience is right here. Retail investors are still stuck on the four-year cycle. Bro, I went all in long ago. 2026 feels like the year we can really turn things around, provided we don't get trapped and stuck. When liquidity overflows, it has to go somewhere. Our coins are the biggest attractors. Waiting for the Federal Reserve to continue easing. If they don't raise rates then, it would be unthinkable. This move is quite significant. I agree with the original poster's judgment. The 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by the central bank is really aggressive. The retail investors haven't reacted yet. The line at the boundary between dusk and dawn is written perfectly—that's exactly the feeling. I'm optimistic about the rhythm of 2026, but we still need to keep some bullets. Holders of coins have been tough this year. With loose liquidity, we get to enjoy the gains. I just want to know how long this liquidity injection can last. That's the key.

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