The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99%, while the remaining 1% chance is for a 50 basis point cut.

In other words, the probability of a rate cut is 100%.
The interest rate cut decision is scheduled for October 29th, Beijing time, which means next week is the last time to speculate on the interest rate cut. If the market is still sluggish next week, it will basically be over.
From a technical perspective, there are currently no signals to go long. On the 15-minute chart, Bitcoin is in a state of choosing a direction, with both bullish and bearish probabilities at 50%. On the 4-hour chart and above, it is completely in a bearish state.
Moreover, there are still many news aspects that remain unknown.
1. The US and China will hold trade negotiations next week.
2. The U.S. government shutdown has resulted in the lack of numerous news releases, including non-farm payroll data and ETF approval results #Gate9月透明报告出炉 .