Kenaikan harga minyak = Inflasi meningkat? Jefferies: Hanya ilusi sementara saja! Federal Reserve paling cepat akan menurunkan suku bunga pada bulan April!

Chief U.S. economist at Jefferies, Thomas Simons, stated that once the temporary oil price shocks subside, the trend of cooling inflation in the United States will continue.

He believes that, although energy costs may cause overall inflation to spike, the overall cooling trend remains unchanged, because consumers’ purchasing power is limited—this makes energy-driven inflation essentially a “zero-sum game.”

“Ultimately, this is basically a zero-sum game,” he said in a recent interview.

Simons further explained that when consumers pay more for gasoline and energy, their available funds for other expenses decrease, thereby preventing widespread price increases throughout the economy. This dynamic helps explain why, even if overall inflation data rises, core inflation indicators may remain relatively stable.

He also discussed the growing divergence between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure).

Simons pointed out that companies facing profit pressures from tariffs and wage costs tend to pass these cost increases onto “high-margin goods or services, which are usually sold to consumers less sensitive to prices”—that is, high-income groups—while keeping the prices of basic goods purchased by low-income consumers stable.

The economist emphasized that, compared to global central banks like the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve has a unique flexibility, as the former focus solely on price stability. The Fed bears a dual mandate to support both price stability and employment. Given the U.S. dependence on gasoline for commuting and freight transportation, the Fed will consider that “if energy prices remain high, economic growth will face significant risks.”

Therefore, Simons disagrees with the current market expectation of delaying the first rate cut until September. He believes the Fed may act sooner, stating that a rate cut could happen “as early as April, but definitely by June.” He also anticipates multiple rate cuts throughout the year, noting that “the likelihood of three cuts is greater than just one.”

Simons’ broader conclusion from his analysis is that as long as energy price pressures do not impact core inflation indicators, the Fed can “ignore” fluctuations in overall inflation.

“Although the oil market may experience short-term volatility, the underlying trend of inflation cooling in the economy still seems to continue,” he emphasized.

(Article source: Cailian Press)