#2月非农意外负增长 Non-farm payrolls surprise to the downside, intensifying market crash

Surprise non-farm payrolls in February just a month after January's big surprise of 130,000 jobs added, February could instantly slap you in the face. How can the volatility of the labor market be higher than Bitcoin? The report shows that U.S. non-farm employment shrank by 92,000 jobs in February, significantly below the previous figure of 130,000 and the expected 60,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, and wages grew by an additional 0.4%, based on these three numbers alone, it can be said that the current U.S. is experiencing weak employment, yet wages are still increasing, depicting a stagflation scenario.
In specific industries, construction collapsed with a reduction of 11,000 jobs, manufacturing shrank by 12,000, information technology dropped by 11,000, leisure hotels lost 27,000 jobs, and even the leading employment sector, education and healthcare, surprisingly shed 34,000 jobs this time. Except for slight increases in finance and other services, it can be said that employment is collapsing across the board.
Looking closely, the decline in construction and the small non-farm data are highly inconsistent, with a difference of up to 40,000 jobs, which may be related to extreme weather delays and survey methodology differences.
Manufacturing and information technology are inherently weak, and their continued decline is not particularly surprising. The sharp drop in leisure hotels was also expected, as North America's harsh winter this year has significantly suppressed travel, offline consumption, and labor demand. In fact, retail data from January also shows a 0.2% month-on-month decline. However, two other data sets show opposite trends: on one hand, core control group consumption increased by 0.3%, indicating consumer resilience remains; on the other hand, online sales grew against the trend, contrasting sharply with offline leisure hotels, reflecting that demand has merely shifted rather than overall declined.
Regarding education and healthcare, the current statement is that Kaiser Permanente has 30,000 employees striking in Hawaii and California, and this strike coincidentally falls within the survey period. If the impact of these 30,000 workers is excluded, education and healthcare also recorded negative growth this month, and overall employment in February decreased by over 60,000. Therefore, education and healthcare cannot change the overall downward trend.
Of course, many economists today point out that February was heavily affected by one-off factors, including extreme winter in North America and healthcare strikes. Additionally, the sharp rise in employment in January may have a natural correction effect, which has suppressed both employment and unemployment rates in February. In other words, the data for February may be somewhat distorted. However, against this backdrop, hourly wages in February surprisingly increased by 0.4% against the trend. Excluding December last year, wages have increased month-on-month for five consecutive months by 0.4%. The continuous rise indicates that although the employment market is cooling, labor costs are not decreasing in tandem. Coupled with current oil price increases and the input cost pressures caused by tariffs, it undoubtedly makes the market more worried about stagflation.