Prévision de la tendance du Niu Bi : origine de la dévaluation, perspectives futures et stratégies d'investissement

New Zealand Dollar (currency code: NZD), commonly known as the Kiwi, is one of the most traded currencies worldwide. Its exchange rate forecast has always been a key focus for forex traders and cross-border investors. Since New Zealand adopted a flexible exchange rate system in 1985 and the Reserve Bank ceased pegging it to trade-weighted currencies, the Kiwi has become an important indicator of New Zealand’s economic health. In the international forex market, the NZD/USD currency pair ranks ninth in trading volume, attracting substantial daily capital flows.

However, in recent years, the Kiwi’s performance has been less than ideal. From its historical high of 0.88 USD in 2014, it has fallen to just above 0.5 USD, depreciating approximately 32%. This persistent downward pressure has prompted investors to deeply consider its future trajectory.

Kiwi Fundamentals: The Logic of Depreciation from Commodity Currency Characteristics

To understand the core of Kiwi’s forecast, it is essential to recognize its commodity currency nature. Australia and New Zealand are typical export-oriented economies, mainly producing coal, iron ore, copper, aluminum, wool, as well as agricultural and dairy products. Over two-thirds of New Zealand’s exports come from agriculture-related industries.

Due to this economic structure, the Kiwi and the Australian dollar are often called “commodity currencies”—their values depend not only on government creditworthiness but also directly reflect supply and demand in the commodity markets. When international prices for agricultural products, dairy, and wool rise, New Zealand’s export income increases, often strengthening the Kiwi; conversely, falling prices exert downward pressure.

Since the pandemic, the global economy has shifted from expansion to recession, with demand for commodities notably declining, directly impacting New Zealand’s export-dependent economy. Meanwhile, tourism, another major pillar of the economy, has remained sluggish post-pandemic, leading to a significant drop in foreign exchange income and further intensifying the Kiwi’s depreciation pressure.

US Dollar Strength and Interest Rate Differentials: External Pressures on the Kiwi

In Kiwi’s forecast, the policies of the Federal Reserve cannot be ignored. In recent years, the Fed has adopted aggressive rate hikes, causing the US dollar interest rates to rise continuously, and the interest rate differential with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has widened. Driven by this differential, international capital tends to flow into US dollar assets for higher yields, leading to a persistent strengthening of the dollar against the Kiwi.

This interest rate differential directly pressures the NZD/USD exchange rate. When the dollar appreciates and the Kiwi depreciates, import prices measured in Kiwi rise, further dampening New Zealand’s economic growth prospects, creating a negative feedback loop.

Global sudden events also have significant impacts. As an economy highly dependent on exports, New Zealand is particularly sensitive to changes in the international trade environment. Geopolitical conflicts, disruptions in global supply chains, and escalating trade frictions can quickly impact the Kiwi’s exchange rate.

Market Outlook: Predictions from Major Investment Banks on the Kiwi

According to forecasts from major investment banks like Corpay, the outlook for the Kiwi is not optimistic. These institutions expect continued downward pressure on NZD/USD:

• Short-term (within six months): possibly reaching 0.594
• Medium-term (within one year): expected to test 0.5934
• Medium to long-term (within two years): further decline to around 0.5885
• Long-term (within three years): forecast at approximately 0.5834

These predictions reflect cautious attitudes among global financial institutions regarding New Zealand’s economic growth prospects. Due to weakening global growth momentum and structural pressures on commodity prices, the Kiwi is unlikely to escape depreciation in the near term.

However, the Kiwi is not entirely without opportunities. When global risk assets are in strong demand and commodity prices rebound, the Kiwi, as a commodity currency, often experiences a rally. At such times, investors tend to sell safe-haven assets like the US dollar and shift into high-yield currencies like the Kiwi, supporting its appreciation. Therefore, tracking global economic cycles, commodity trends, and Fed policy movements is crucial for forecasting the Kiwi’s future.

Four Major Investment Channels: How to Participate in Kiwi Trading

Investors interested in participating in the Kiwi market have four main options, each with its advantages and disadvantages:

1. Kiwi Fixed Deposit

Exchange TWD to NZD at the current bank rate in Taiwan and deposit as a fixed-term deposit. Upon maturity, convert back to TWD at the prevailing rate and earn interest on the Kiwi deposit.

Advantages: Familiar operation, minimal risk, well-regulated
Disadvantages: Limited returns, inflexible entry and exit

2. Kiwi Funds

Forex funds targeting the New Zealand dollar, managed by professional fund managers. The fund actively adjusts positions based on market trends to seek excess returns.

Advantages: Professional management, diversification of risk, higher return potential
Disadvantages: Higher management fees, redemption restrictions

3. Kiwi Futures

Futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), with the code NE. Minimum tick size is 0.0001, with a tick value of $10, and physical delivery is possible.

Futures are margin trading instruments, allowing both long and short positions, with leverage to amplify gains. However, traders face risks of margin calls and liquidation, and futures contracts have fixed delivery dates requiring rollover.

Advantages: Two-way trading, leverage, high liquidity
Disadvantages: Very high risk, position monitoring required, delivery date constraints

4. Contracts for Difference (CFD)

CFDs are contracts between buyer and seller based on the price difference, without physical delivery. Traders only pay or receive the difference, with lower margin requirements and higher capital efficiency compared to futures. CFDs can be held indefinitely as they have no fixed delivery date.

CFDs offer flexible two-way trading—long positions to profit from rising markets and short positions for falling markets. For well-predictable currency pairs like the Kiwi, short-term CFD trading can effectively capture market swings.

Advantages: Low margin, high flexibility, no forced delivery
Disadvantages: Leverage risk, requires careful risk management

Risk Alerts and Trading Recommendations

Regardless of the investment method, traders should fully understand the risks involved in Kiwi trading. As a commodity currency, the Kiwi tends to be more volatile than major currencies, easily affected by global economic cycles, policy changes, and unexpected events. Using leverage tools (futures, CFDs) can lead to rapid losses or even loss of capital with small market movements.

It is recommended that investors develop clear risk management strategies before participating, including setting stop-loss orders, controlling position sizes, and proper capital allocation. Additionally, closely monitor the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decisions, Fed interest rate trends, global commodity prices, and geopolitical risks, as these are critical factors influencing the accuracy of Kiwi forecasts.

Economic calendar tools can help traders track key economic data releases, enabling proactive positioning or avoidance of high-volatility periods. With sufficient information and risk awareness, investors can participate more confidently in the Kiwi market and seize investment opportunities.

Mainstream Kiwi Trading Currency Pairs

Common Kiwi pairs include: NZD/USD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF, NZD/CAD, NZD/SGD, offering investors diverse trading options.