ETH/USDT Trade Plan — 1H Chart

$ETH ‌##FedHoldsRateButDividesDeepen
ETH/USDT is trading at $2,302.93, up 1.04% over the past 24 hours. The chart tells a clear recovery story: price bottomed at $2,231.72 on April 30th and has since rallied approximately 4.2%, reaching a high of $2,325.78 before consolidating at current levels. The asset is now in a short-term digestion phase following that impulse move.
Technical Snapshot
The structure here is meaningfully more constructive than typical ranging markets. Price is trading above all three EMAs — EMA5 (2,300.96), EMA10 (2,299.35), and EMA30 (2,291.12) — which are fanning upward in bullish alignment. The Bollinger Bands are beginning to expand after a prolonged squeeze, which typically precedes a sustained directional move. Current price sits between the mid-band (2,298.41) and upper band (2,318.17), consistent with bullish momentum.
The MACD does warrant attention: while the DIF (6.06) remains well above the DEA (6.88 — notably, DEA is slightly higher, signaling a very recent bearish cross), the histogram is turning slightly negative (-0.81). This suggests the immediate momentum is cooling, but the broader trend remains intact given the significant positive values relative to zero.
Scenarios
Scenario A — Bullish Continuation (primary bias)
The overall structure favors buyers. A brief pullback to retest the EMA cluster and Bollinger mid-band (~2,290–2,300) would represent a high-quality re-entry opportunity, with price likely to then target the upper Bollinger Band and the 24h high of 2,325.78.
Entry: On a clean retest and hold of the 2,290–2,300 zone
Target 1: 2,325 (prior high / upper band)
Target 2: 2,366 (next visible resistance level)
Stop-loss: Below 2,278 (lower Bollinger Band)
Scenario B — Pullback / Short-Term Bearish Correction
If the MACD cross deepens and selling pressure increases, price could retrace more aggressively toward the EMA30 at 2,291 or the lower Bollinger Band at 2,278. A sustained break below 2,278 would put the 2,250–2,237 zone in play and would invalidate the current bullish thesis.
Entry: Short on a confirmed close below 2,278
Target: 2,237–2,250 support zone
Stop-loss: Above 2,300
Recommended Posture
The weight of evidence favors the long side, with the caveat that immediate entry at current levels carries moderate risk given the MACD softening. The most disciplined approach is to wait for a controlled pullback into the 2,290–2,300 confluence zone before entering long, which offers a better risk-to-reward ratio than chasing price here. Maintaining a stop below the lower Bollinger Band keeps risk well-defined against a clearly structured trade.