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Recently, I've noticed something when observing market movements. As Arthur Hayes points out, the current market truly remains in a "trendless state." In fact, it seems that major trading firms have been engaging in cautious trading during the first quarter.
According to Arthur Hayes's analysis, there are two factors that could potentially drive the market in the future. One is the impact of AI on the employment market. The other is geopolitical tensions, especially the uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz amid unstable relations between the U.S. and Iran.
Both of these factors could directly influence the market. The impact of AI on employment affects the entire economy, and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could trigger chain reactions through the oil market. As Arthur Hayes also emphasizes, this structural uncertainty may be causing the current market stagnation.
In other words, this isn't just a correction phase but possibly a "waiting period" for the next phase. During such times, it's important to observe signs of upcoming trends while referencing the insights of market observers like Arthur Hayes.