The race of valuations between crypto and artificial intelligence: Have we really reached the peak of the bubble?

Over the past year, I noticed a significant shift in my investment strategy: I’ve been focusing more on stocks than crypto. This change wasn’t random; it resulted from careful observation of patterns repeating themselves in the artificial intelligence industry, and how they are beginning to reflect the same bubble dynamics we’ve seen before in crypto markets.

Division within the AI giant: a clear warning sign

Dario Amodei’s refusal to shake hands with Sam Altman wasn’t just a passing incident at an awards ceremony. It embodied a deep split in the AI industry between two opposing visions: those betting on safety first (Anthropic) versus those rushing toward speed and innovation at any cost (OpenAI).

This ongoing conflict between the two companies has already led to talent migration and a decline in market share for some, amid growing competition. These accumulated signals indicate that market confidence is starting to waver — the same symptoms that preceded major corrections in crypto markets.

Unrealistic valuations: $850 billion based on future promises

From a purely financial perspective, an $850 billion valuation for OpenAI seems more based on distant aspirations than current facts. The company is incurring massive annual losses, and reaching true profitability is expected to take several more years. This pattern is very familiar: we invested huge capital based on technological promises, without fully considering the company’s financial health.

History has taught us harsh lessons: companies valued at blatantly inflated numbers often impose a heavy toll on investors when corrections happen. Are we about to relive the same scenario we saw with the 2017 crypto bubble?

The closed financial cycle: a flawed system by design

The most concerning aspect is what I call the closed financial cycle:

Nvidia invests huge sums in OpenAI → OpenAI buys processors worth millions from Nvidia → OpenAI invests in CoreWeave (a cloud infrastructure platform) → CoreWeave re-rents these processors back to OpenAI.

This pattern resembles recycling money in a closed loop. The real added value is unclear, and the numbers seem artificially inflated. In crypto markets, we’ve seen similar behaviors before major crashes.

The decisive moment: either a technological breakthrough or a market correction

We are now at a critical juncture:

Either AI makes genuine technological breakthroughs and develops profitable applications that justify these sky-high valuations, or we will see a harsh market correction that brings prices back to their true value.

Based on historical patterns, the second option is more likely. Overinflated valuations, complex financial structures, and declining confidence among market players have all combined before, always resulting in sharp corrections. Whether in crypto markets or AI sectors, the fundamental market law remains: what rises rapidly without reason will fall just as fast.