What awaits the gold market? Gold price forecasts and the best investment strategies in the upcoming period

As we enter the second half of 2026, investors stand at a critical crossroads in reading the gold market trajectory. Prices have shown notable movements since the start of the year, rising sharply in January to nearly $5,600 per ounce, then experiencing a significant decline in February to around $4,885. These fluctuations reflect a real struggle between factors supporting gains and others pulling prices downward.

How Gold Has Performed Since the Beginning of 2026: Price Trends and Developments

Understanding the forecast for gold prices in the upcoming period requires reviewing the metal’s performance in the first months of this year. 2026 started unexpectedly strong; gold gained substantially in the early weeks, benefiting from continued central bank purchases and rising concerns over global geopolitical tensions.

The first half of 2025 saw a gradual rise from around $3,000, ending the year with annual gains close to 70%. The fourth quarter of 2025 reached the year’s highest levels, with prices approaching $4,550 due to strong inflows into ETFs. This momentum continued into early January 2026, with prices heading toward a new, higher pricing phase.

However, the picture became more complex in February, as profit-taking began to weigh on the market. Prices fell from $5,600 to about $4,885, reflecting uncertainty among investors about the true market direction in the short and medium term.

Gold Price Forecasts from Major Institutions: What Do They Expect?

Major financial institutions have differing views on price developments for the rest of the year, highlighting high uncertainty and complex economic and political conditions.

J.P. Morgan: expects the price to reach around $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by sustained institutional demand and central bank purchases.

UBS: has raised its target to $6,200 as a baseline scenario, with potential to hit $7,200 if geopolitical tensions worsen, and a possible dip to $4,600 if U.S. monetary policy tightens.

Deutsche Bank: focuses on a $6,000 target for the year, based on the assumption that funds will continue flowing into safe assets away from the dollar.

Goldman Sachs: has set a target around $5,400, with caution that this level could be exceeded if geopolitical crises escalate.

Bank of America: raised its forecast to $5,000 per ounce, citing ongoing demand from institutional investors and central banks.

Morgan Stanley and Citi: expect ranges between $4,800 and $5,700 throughout the year, indicating incomplete clarity.

This divergence in gold price forecasts confirms that the market remains influenced by unpredictable factors, and any sudden political or economic development could drastically alter the price landscape.

Key Factors Shaping Gold’s Path in 2026

To understand the upcoming forecast, attention must be paid to major market-moving factors:

Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy

Inflation remains the primary driver. In December 2025, US inflation was at 2.7%, above the Fed’s official 2% target. This slight but persistent gap indicates inflationary pressures have not subsided, boosting gold’s appeal as an effective hedge. Any signals from the Fed about rate cuts or holding rates steady will be pivotal for future price behavior.

Dollar Strength

The US dollar plays an inverse role relative to gold. A weaker dollar tends to push gold prices higher, while a strong dollar exerts downward pressure. In 2020, when the Fed injected massive liquidity to combat the economic crisis, the dollar declined and gold soared to record levels. This scenario could reverse if the Fed resumes rate cuts in the coming months.

Central Bank Policies Worldwide

Central banks, especially in emerging markets, continue to buy gold to diversify reserves away from the dollar. This ongoing demand forms a strong floor for prices and supports a long-term upward trend.

Safe-Haven Demand

In times of uncertainty, investors flock to gold. Current geopolitical conflicts and fears of an unstable global economy keep safe-haven demand high. Any easing of tensions could significantly reduce this demand.

Investment Strategies: Choose What Fits Your Goals Wisely

There’s no single way to invest in gold. Investors have multiple options, each with advantages and challenges.

Short-Term Investing: Capitalizing on Volatility

How it works:
Short-term traders exploit daily or weekly price movements using instruments like gold futures or CFDs. Instead of owning physical gold, they bet on price directions—up or down.

Pros:

• Quick profits if predictions are correct
• High flexibility in entering/exiting trades
• Ability to profit in rising and falling markets

Cons:

• Price volatility makes timing difficult
• Additional costs like commissions and spreads
• Requires daily monitoring and technical analysis

Gold CFDs:
Allow you to speculate on price direction without owning the metal. For example, if you expect prices to rise from $4,700 to $4,710, you profit from the difference. Conversely, if you expect a decline, you can short. Profits and losses are based on the difference between entry and exit prices.

Long-Term Investing: Preserving Wealth

How it works:
Buying gold bars, coins, or gold-backed ETFs and holding for years. The goal is not quick profit but capital preservation against inflation.

Pros:

• High security and safe haven during crises
• Maintains purchasing power over time
• Relative stability over the long term

Cons:

• Prices may remain stagnant for long periods
• Gold does not generate regular income like stocks or bonds
• Storage and insurance costs for physical gold

Balanced Approach

Invest a portion of your portfolio in long-term assets like gold bars or ETFs for wealth preservation, and allocate another part to short-term tools if you have the expertise and time.

Risks and Challenges: What Could Change Gold Price Expectations?

Despite positive indicators, real threats could hinder gains:

1. Tightening US monetary policy:
If the Fed raises interest rates instead of cutting, gold’s appeal diminishes as it does not yield interest.

2. Resolution of geopolitical tensions:
Ending major conflicts could reduce safe-haven demand significantly.

3. Collective investor shifts:
Mass exodus from gold into stocks or cryptocurrencies could pressure prices downward.

4. Mining supply disruptions:
Any interruptions in mining operations or supply chains could affect the supply-demand balance.

Conclusion: What Should You Do Now?

Forecasts for gold prices in the upcoming period range broadly between $4,600 and $7,200, reflecting high uncertainty. Major investment houses agree that the metal will remain relatively high compared to past years, but the specific path depends heavily on US Federal Reserve decisions and geopolitical developments.

If you’re considering investing in gold, first define your objectives: Are you protecting your capital from inflation, or seeking short-term profits? For safety and stability, physical gold, coins, and ETFs offer direct protection. If you’re an experienced trader, CFDs provide greater flexibility with higher risks.

Ultimately, success in the gold market depends not only on price forecasts but also on a clear strategy aligned with your financial situation and risk tolerance. Deeply understand market factors, choose the appropriate instrument, and stay regularly updated on market developments and major economic events.