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Google's century bond is surprising, with a few points:
1. Oversubscribed by more than 5 times, originally aiming for $15 billion, but ultimately raising $20 billion, with many long-term investors like pension and sovereign funds participating.
2. The three-year tranche was the strongest, with only a 0.27 percentage point premium over government bonds.
It seems that the entire AI CapEx will be a major infrastructure-driven boom unique to the U.S.. I believe this will have some crowding-out effects on other markets. In the future, if yields from similar DeFi or staking products are lower than Google's, this will likely remain a niche product.
But a more concerning signal is: past century bonds generally indicated industry tops. IBM in 1996, Motorola in 1997. Although the sample size is small.
ROIC might become a thematic narrative in the U.S. stock market for a period. An important judgment is: in the past, technology led deflation; in the next decade, technology will lead inflation. The era of stagflation is approaching.