According to Gate market data, Bitcoin broke through the critical $64,000 support level on February 6, plunging to a low of $59,980.6—its lowest point since the historic high in October 2025.
While market attention remains focused on price swings, three major crypto whales with long-standing public positions are now facing severe challenges. Gate market data shows Bitcoin currently trading at $64,883.4, with a market cap holding steady at $1.56 trillion and a dominant 56.80% market share.
Market Turmoil
The Bitcoin market is undergoing a sharp correction. Since reaching its all-time high of roughly $124,700 in October 2025, the Bitcoin price has retraced more than 50%, briefly dipping below the psychological $60,000 threshold today. This level has drawn widespread attention—not only because it represents a key support on many technical charts, but also because several institutions see it as a crucial reference point for the market bottom.
A report from Bernstein analysts notes that the crypto market is currently in a short-term bear cycle, but expects a reversal in the first half of 2026. Bitcoin may establish a price floor around the $60,000 range, laying the foundation for the next rally. Some institutions agree, viewing the current weakness as a late-cycle correction rather than a prolonged downturn.
The Whale Loss Landscape
As Bitcoin breaks through critical support levels, volatility in the digital asset market is intensifying, with three publicly disclosed heavyweight holders at the heart of the storm.
First is Strategy (MSTR), founded by Michael Saylor, which currently holds 713,500 Bitcoin at an average cost of about $76,052. At current prices, the company faces an unrealized loss of more than $6.4 billion, having surrendered over $41.3 billion in paper gains since the peak. In Q4, Strategy reported a net loss of $12.4 billion, driven largely by a $17.4 billion unrealized fair value loss from mark-to-market accounting.
Turning to Ethereum, the situation remains dire. Tom Lee’s BitMine holds roughly 4.29 million ETH. With an average cost of $3,849 per ETH and the current price down to $1,935.83, BitMine is sitting on nearly $8.5 billion in unrealized losses.
Trend Research, led by Yilihua, has taken an even riskier path. The firm has leveraged on-chain cyclical lending to go long on Ethereum, now holding about 463,000 ETH at an average cost of $3,180. Its current unrealized loss exceeds $647 million, with a liquidation price just above $1,600.
Combined, these three bullish portfolios are now facing over $15 billion in unrealized losses.
Diverging Risk Structures
Despite similarly large losses, the risk profiles of these three institutions differ fundamentally, shaping their ability to withstand market pressure and their potential impact on the broader market.
Strategy, while facing massive paper losses, has adopted a relatively robust financial structure. The company holds $2.25 billion in cash reserves—enough to cover interest and dividend payments for the next two years. Its main pressure comes from $8.2 billion in convertible debt, which will face redemption risk between 2027 and 2028.
BitMine has opted for a low-leverage, high-staking, zero-debt spot strategy. Nearly 70% of its ETH holdings (about 2,897,459 ETH) are staked on the Ethereum Beacon Chain.
Tom Lee reports that BitMine has $586 million in cash reserves, and its staked ETH generates over $1 million in daily cash flow. This approach helps the company avoid forced liquidation risk, allowing it to buy time for a market recovery.
Trend Research faces a much tougher situation. The firm uses a classic "stake-borrow-buy-restake-borrow" loop, leveraging ETH through on-chain lending protocols like Aave. When the ETH price drops rapidly, this strategy can spiral into a vicious cycle: falling prices, approaching liquidation thresholds, ETH sell-offs, margin calls, and further declines.
To avoid forced liquidation, Trend Research has deposited a total of 73,588 ETH (worth about $169 million) on exchanges for sale and loan repayment. Its liquidation price has dropped below $1,800, but significant risks remain.
Systemic Risk Concerns
The market’s focus isn’t just on the whales’ losses—it’s also on the potential for systemic risk. Historically, forced liquidations by large institutions have triggered chain reactions that amplify market volatility.
Between October 10 and 11, 2025, leveraged positions worth $19 to $40 billion were forcibly liquidated, marking one of the largest events in crypto history. This exposed structural flaws in perpetual contracts as hedging tools, with many liquidated positions reportedly belonging to professional hedging strategies.
Signals from the derivatives market are also cause for concern. When open interest surges alongside soaring funding rates, it typically signals systemic fragility rather than market strength. This pattern recently emerged during meme coin volatility, with individual exchange liquidations reaching $97,000 and $76,000. If similar events hit the Bitcoin or Ethereum markets, the consequences would be far more severe.
On-chain data shows about $218 million in long liquidation risk concentrated around key support and resistance zones for tokens like PEPE. While these figures are small relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum’s market size, they highlight underlying structural vulnerabilities.
Market Outlook and Investor Strategies
Given the current environment, investors need to analyze market signals calmly and develop sound strategies. Over the long term, several institutions remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s price in 2026.
Bernstein reiterates its $150,000 price target for 2026, arguing that the latest pullback won’t end the bull market. JPMorgan’s team suggests a "theoretical price/implicit fair value" near $170,000, using a volatility-adjusted Bitcoin-to-gold relative valuation framework. Gate market data’s Bitcoin price prediction indicates an average price of $78,559.7 in 2026, with a projected range between a low of $58,134.17 and a high of $85,630.07. These forecasts broadly align with institutional analysis.
For investors looking to participate in the crypto market via Gate, consider the following strategies:
First, pay close attention to key support levels. Bernstein’s analysis highlights the $60,000 range as a potential bottom for Bitcoin.
Second, diversify risk. Avoid overconcentration in a single asset or strategy, especially in high-leverage environments.
Third, take a long-term approach. Consider allocating assets to yield-generating strategies like staking, as BitMine does, to provide cash flow during periods of market volatility.
The table below compares the holdings and risk profiles of the three major institutions:
| Institution | Asset Held | Quantity | Average Cost | Unrealized Loss | Key Risk Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | Bitcoin | ~713,500 | $76,052 | > $6.4B | Convertible debt redemption pressure, premium erosion |
| BitMine | Ethereum | ~4,285,126 | $3,879.06 | $6.68B | Prolonged price decline, insufficient staking yield |
| Trend Research | Ethereum | ~463,000 | $3,180 | > $647M | Leveraged cyclical lending, near-liquidation risk |
Market volatility offers rational investors an opportunity to reassess asset allocation and risk management strategies. While short-term pressures may persist, long-term fundamentals—including rising institutional adoption and a clearer regulatory landscape—continue to support the future development of the crypto market.
On February 6, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 before rebounding to around $64,883.4. The spotlight is now on these major holders and how they’ll weather the storm. BitMine’s Tom Lee has taken a "laid-back" stance on social media, while Strategy’s Michael Saylor simply responded to market concerns with "HODL." Meanwhile, Trend Research’s Yilihua is busy moving assets on-chain to avoid liquidation. The market structure is undergoing profound changes. Over 30% of circulating ETH is now staked, locking up significant supply and potentially setting the stage for future price rebounds. As the market digests the current adjustment, those who manage risk effectively and maintain ample liquidity will be best positioned for the next cycle.
